Radio
Ecoshock Show September 3rd, 2010
[Opens
with song clip from "Fire" by Arthur Brown, 1968][plus an AP news
radio clip, starting with the quick quote from a woman in Moscow...]
Welcome
back to Radio Ecoshock. Thanks to the
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In the Summer of 2010, the world witnessed more signs of climatic instability on a grand scale.
The
Arctic Ice again retreated to near-record levels. In the United States, new heat records were set in many states. In fact, 17
different countries set all-time heat records this past Summer, from Latin
America through Africa and the Middle East to Russia.
In
Pakistan, floods beyond imagination created the world's largest humanitarian
disaster.
But the
harbinger, messenger from the future, took the Russian people into uncharted
Hell. Moscow, at the latitude of
Alaska, boiled in the weather of Cairo, while gasping smoky air equivalent to
two packs a day of cigarettes, for every man, woman and child.
Russian
leaders, who bragged global warming would be good for that Northern country,
got a taste of the coming century.
Scientists
are still debating whether the abnormal heat, drought, and fires in Russia were
caused by climate change. But we know
for certain: that is the future, that is the coming century, as temperatures
climb, as the greenhouse atmosphere thickens with the exhaust of our fossil civilization.
Let us see what we can learn. About how people and governments act under stress. About our vulnerabilities. About our chances of survival.
In the
radio show, we go straight to Moscow, talking with Vladimir Tchouprov of Greenpeace Russia. He's got news that never made the mainstream
news.
That is
followed by more analysis from Dmitry Orlov, author of
"Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American
Prospects." Dmitry has been
scanning the Russian language press and blog, while talking with people inside
and outside the country. Dmitry has
some suggestions for survival.
Are you
interested in your food supplies? We
squeeze in a clip from a press conference with Lester Brown, on the
Russian grain export ban, and the impact of climate on world food stocks.
Can we
even comprehend these grand events, these warning signs?
I'm Alex
Smith, and let's get started.
[READ
MORE]
[Listen
to/download the
Vladimir Tchouprov interview - 17 min 4 MB]
Was it global warming?
Scientists
seem to fall in three camps. A small
group say the Russian heat wave was natural, or even caused by an American
climate weapon, based in Alaska. Others
say this was certainly made worse by human-made greenhouse gases. The remainder say it is too soon to tell,
without further study - but this is certainly what we can expect in the
future. Given what we know from models,
and from the deep past.
[Quick
quote from Piers Corbyn, saying humans have nothing to do with it.]
Those
calling the event natural are not all cranks, like Piers Corbyn who you just
heard talking with Russia TV. Corbyn is
a meteorologist, astrophysicist and professional weather predicter in
England. In Wikipedia, he has been
proven very wrong in his predictions.
Martin
Hoerling is a research meteorologist, who specializes in climate for the Earth
System Research Lab in Colorado - run for the American government's NOAA.
Hoerling
reviewed historical data on heat waves in Russia. He concluded that global warming did not cause this event. Rather it was, he says, a "black
swan" - an unusual stalling of the air streams that normally move weather
systems as the Earth spins.
Russia
has experienced very hot weather before, but nothing like this, and never for
so long. Still, Hoerling argues all the
necessary causes can be found in the normal operations weather, without climate
change. Not that he disbelieves climate
change - far from it. The man warns
this is exactly what many places of the Earth can expect - perhaps 70 years from
now, due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases.
Find a link to the NOAA draft
report, dated August 13th, in my Radio Ecoshock blog entry for September
1st, 2010.
For those
with a subscription, Michael Marshall makes a similar argument in New Scientist
magazine, usually a reliable source. It
is titled "Frozen
jet stream links Pakistan floods, Russian fires"
Personally,
from my 21 years following climate change in both the press and scientific
reports, I've heard too many projections of climate events expected 50 years
from now, that whirl up violently now.
The same long-term predictions were made about the Arctic sea ice. I
say, climate change is with us now.
Saying
this heat wave is a "black swan" event is an oxy-moron. It means we haven't seen it before, but that
explains nothing. Meteorologists tend
to explain everything in terms of weather mechanics. Climate scientists look back at longer trends, and forecast
events exactly like the Russian heat wave.
Instead
of a swan, this one looks, walks and quacks like a duck. Maybe it is.
Let's
look again at Russia, through experienced eyes.
[Dmitry
Orlov interview. See link below for
download.]
I've put
selected links to interviews and papers by Dmitry Orlov in the Radio Ecoshock
blog for this program.
Expecting
Collapse. It's the new hot meme: we are
going down. Interview with Dmitry Orlov, author of "Reinventing
Collapse", and John Michael Greer, "The Long Descent". Plus
clips from Prof Joseph Tainter & Dennis Meadows. Will it be a relief? Ecoshock 100305
1 hour Lo-Fi 14 MB
Reinventing
Collapse The Soviet Example & American Prospects KMO of C-Realm interviews
author Dmitry Orlov on possible devolution of America, as oil runs out. From
C-Realm 92. 6 min 25 MB Lo-Fi
Re-Inventing
Collapse Ecoshock
interview with Dmitry Orlov, author of "Reinventing Collapse: Soviet
Example and American Prospects" America after bankruptcy may be a new
opportunity. 23 min 6 MB Lo-Fi
The
Russian Heat Storm - Ecoshock interview with Orlov 100903 (this week's
program) 18 min 4 MB Lo-Fi
The
Collapse Party Program – humorous? - but very serious, look at what
politicians really need to do to save this civilization. Must read.
The
Five Stages of Collapse. Orlov's
site notes: "Update May 2010: Two years after its publication, this
article has been read by 54000 or so people, and is still being read by an
average of 1500 people each month—on this site alone. Based on this steady
level of interest, and on how effective of this taxonomy of collapse has proven
to be in mapping out the events of the intervening two years, I have decided to
give it a book-length treatment."
Keep up
with Dmitry Orlov at his web site.
================
15 LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE, FROM THE RUSSIAN HEAT STORM
-by Alex
Smith, Radio Ecoshock
Whether
or not the Russian fire storm was directly caused by climate change - it is a
hard lesson on what we can expect in the future. Here are just a few of the issues stirred up by heat, the smoke,
the drought, and the fires. Learn what
you will, from these 15 warnings.
Deaths
from heat and smog caused the death rate to double in Moscow. Large cities can be attacked by climate
change, to become deadly traps.
Number
2
An
estimated 2,000 Russians drowned trying to escape the heat. Some died in drinking fountains. Some drank too much alcohol, trying to cope
with the heat and stress.
Number
3
The fires
revealed the extreme and nearly uncontrollable dangers posed by climate change
to nuclear facilities, both power reactors and military bases.
Number
4
Many
people tried to leave Moscow, but were prevented by smoke-closed roads and
airports. Subways became
dangerous. Traffic accidents and
fatalities went way up. Essential
goods, including food and medical supplies, can't get through. Transportation systems break down.
Number
5
The
number of homeless people grew, as villages were burned out.
Peat
fires went up to 12 feet underground, and are expected to burn until winter.
Number
7
Crops
die. One fifth of Russian grains were
lost, exports banned, and international wheat prices rose. In the future, grain importers, like the
North African nations, may starve.
Number
8
Home
gardens, community gardens, and survival gardens died. Beyond certain limits, plants cannot cope
with a hotter climate. Survivalists
should begin testing their varieties and their strategies for cooling
plants. Or consider relocating to a
microclimate regulated by the ocean, or other large bodies of water.
Number
9
Fans, air
conditioners, and inflatable pools sold out quickly. Money could not buy a cool place, or fresh air. Air conditioners may be useless, if the
power goes out. Consider your tools.
Number
10
Some
wealthy Russians were able to get out, including government officials. With the poor stuck and dying, - class
stress, or even violence, is possible during extreme climate events. Think New Orleans under hurricane Katrina.
Number
11
The
electric grid is strained, and power lines burn down, including those coming
from nuclear power stations. Brown-outs
and black-outs are likely in the future, even in countries like Great Britain,
or America.
People
suffer extreme psychological stress.
Will your baby, grandma, or asthmatic husband be OK? Are you afraid to go out for work or
supplies? Will crime and violence flare
in the day-after-day relentless heat?
Do people come to fear the weather?
What are the long-term mental health risks?
Number
13
Even more
carbon was released into the atmosphere.
Global warming will feed more global warming. The Russian fires released millions of tons of carbon from the
forests into the sky. The black
particles swirled up into the international Arctic, darkening snow, hastening
more melting. Brown clouds traveled as
far as Beijing.
Number
14
The
economic costs continue to mount.
Forest jobs lost. Workers don't
show up. Expensive fire fighting and
restoration costs. Roads wiped
out. Crops wiped out, including
orchards, farm equipment, and buildings.
In Russia, the loss is estimated at least 1 percent of the GDP.
Public
anger mounts, and big government often fails to handle anything with competence. Regime change, as we may yet see in Pakistan
after the floods, is always possible after major climate hits. The long-term impact on public confidence is
unknown. Governments may swing to
authoritarian forms, or break down into smaller states, or anarchy.
===========
The only
known way to control our path toward the future, to limit the horror or these
trends, is to control our carbon emissions, and other greenhouse gases. The alternative, as climateprogress blogger
Joe Romm says, is Hell and
High Water.
The top
man at the Russian weather forecast agency called Rosgidromet, one Alexander
Frolov, told AFP news:
"From the moment of the foundation of our country, we can say, in the last period of 1,000 years, no similar heat wave has been observed neither by ourselves nor by our ancestors."
From
Moscow, Associated Press reporter Simon Schuster reported this historic moment,
quote:
At a
meeting of international sporting officials in Moscow on July 30, Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev announced that in 14 regions of the country,
'practically everything is burning. The weather is anomalously hot.' Then, as
TV cameras zoomed in on the perspiration shining on his forehead, Medvedev
announced, 'What's happening with the
planet's climate right now needs to be a wake-up call to all of us, meaning all
heads of state, all heads of social organizations, in order to take a more
energetic approach to countering the global changes to the climate.'"
end quote.
A former
employee of forest company International Paper, President Medvedev was
instrumental in dismantling the forest monitoring system that could have helped
save lives and the forests.
The radio
show has more on Medvedev's meddling with the forest, and it's impact on these
fires, in a report from theglobalreport.org
See that
You tube report on mishandling of the Russian fire response here.
Previously,
President Medvedev had described global warming as, quote, "some kind of
tricky campaign made up by some commercial structures to promote their business
projects." In 2009, Medvedev
announced Russia would increase their warming gases 30 percent by 2020.
What else could the head of one of
the world's largest fossil-fuel exporters say?
We can expect the same denial and obstruction from Canada, for the same
reasons. And like Russia, parts of
Canada are burning every Summer.
We can
say that the very purpose of our lives, now, is to help
move carbon from deep in the Earth into the sky.
That is what we do every day, you and I.
We buy a
product, and that moves all the carbon - from extraction of raw resources,
through production and shipping, on the way to the land-fill or incinerator, on
the way to the atmosphere. Almost
everything we want and do, is part of this vast system of greenhouse gas
production.
We are the greenhouse makers.
Our children will sweat it out in the world we leave them. Unless we find a better way.
I'm Alex
Smith for Radio Ecoshock. Thank you for
caring enough to listen.
This is
"Power from Above" by New England folk singer Dan Berggren.
[download
it here.]