Surfing Waves of Trouble - Links and commentary

This is Radio Ecoshock - on the triple threat. Peak Oil, climate change, and the crumbling economy. How will you respond?

KURT COBB

Time after time, Kurt Cobb gets those questions ahead of the curve. Kurt is an independent writer on energy and the environment. Find his features on Energy Bulletin or The Oil Drum, and more. Kurt is a founding member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas - USA. His work is published in Europe as well.

I've been running a series of interviews about collapse. Scientist Tim Garrett told us a massive economic breakdown might be the only way to save the climate. We've heard from Keith Farnish in the UK, and both Dmitry Orlov and John Michael Greer in the USA.

Last week, we used a gentle definition of collapse from Dennis Meadows. He said "'collapse' is a process where things go down, out of control." We get Kurt's take on collapse, and what to do about it.

Like Dmitry Orlov, Kurt looks at the example of the former Soviet Union, and Russia today. One sign of collapse, he says, is the breakdown of the public health system.

But is that just in Russia? Consider this: AIDS deaths in Russia are frightening. Americans think that's all in the past. Now we find out, the leading cause of death for African American women, aged 25 to 34, is HIV/AIDS. It's at epidemic levels in the nation's capital, running at about 3 percent. Few of those people have health care. Is it possible Americans could also experience a climbing death rate, as the economy deteriorates?

I think the current American pre-occupation with health care, and all the Obama capital tied up in it, could be a recognition of greater social difficulties, perhaps even of collapse.

Find Kurt Cobb's blog here.

We'll hear more from Kurt Cobb next week, on Radio Ecoshock.

In this week's program, I play a sample from the remarkable end-of-career conversion by Professor David Goodstein. He's the American physicist, until recently the Vice-provost of the California Institute of Technology. Out of the blue, in 2004, Goodstein produced the seminal book "Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil".

Two short sample clips of David Goodstein, recorded for the film "Crude Awakening, The Oil Crash" from Lava Pictures. Get your taste, at oilcrashmovie.com or on You tube.

Time to move on. I interview Carolyn Baker.

CAROLYN BAKER - SPEAKING TRUTH TO POWER

Our whole system is built on dwindling fossil energy, pollution, economic bubbles, and fraud. Now what are we supposed to do?

Looking for answers, we find Carolyn Baker. She's been a psychotherapist, and adjunct professor of psychology and history. Carolyn has been searching ahead since the 1990's. Her latest book is "Sacred Demise: Walking the Spiritual Path of Industrial Civilization’s Collapse."

Check out Carolyn Baker's blog here.

http://www.carolynbaker.net

For one thing, we talk about an article posted in April, 2009 - titled "Economic Recovery - No Thank You".

I have to agree, with regrets. On our program, we recently had a scientist, Tim Garrett at the University of Utah, who explained we either collapse the fossil economy, or face deadly climate change. It's time for a new sustainable civilization to arise. The longer we wait, the greater the pain, and the less likely we will succeed in doing it.

Carolyn is offering a new online course, to help people prepare for rising energy prices, climate disruption, and economic hard times. It's called "Navigating the Coming Chaos of Unprecedented Transitions". That's something they don't teach in the Harvard Business School.... Find out more at peakliving.com.

Carolyn's vision is much bigger and more real than digging a hole, and filling it full of food, guns, and gold. We talk about real-world skills, and building community.

CANADA'S SHAME

This is Radio Ecoshock, trying hard to be a world-class English language show. Last week we heard from Australia, of course we do American, and listeners from the UK is our number three audience. Now it's Canada's turn - and what a black eye for the Beaver tails.

While his government was full of green promises, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been caught slashing climate research funds, appointing climate deniers to key government funding positions, and ... just like in the dark old Bush days, scheming to muzzle the country's top climate scientists.

The best article on all this is by Stephen Leahy.

We run an exclusive interview by Stephen Leahy with Graham Saul of Climate Action Network.

Ugly stuff. Climate Action Network, as you heard, represents about 60 citizen groups and NGO's worried about our climate. Support Stephen Leahy as he brings us this great audio. Contribute at stephenleahy.net.

Canwest ran a story saying climate coverage from government scientists was down 80% since Mr. Tar Sands went to work in the Canadian capital. And expensive reports get released at crazy hours, after the press has gone. Anything to sweep it all under the rug, while our North melts, while our species go under. The rest of the planet doesn't get to find out what is happening, in one of the largest and most heavily impacted parts of the globe.


That's it for me this week. We opened with a song from 350.org, "350 the People's Priority" by Daisy May and Seth Bernard. We'll go out with another, "350 Get Down" with May Erlewine.

Alex

EXPECTING COLLAPSE

Collapse is the new in thing. Columnists in collapsing newspapers write about it. Historians tell us it's coming. Prominent economists predict it. We all expect it.

What is collapse? Definitions vary from uncontrollable downturns, all the way to great culls in our population.

Lets start gently, with mild-mannered professor Dennis Meadows, one of the original authors to "The Limits to Growth". Here is a clip from a film prepared September 2009 for leaders and billionaires at Davos, Switzerland:

"The Danger of Collapse

Technically speaking "collapse" is a process where things go down, out of control. For example, if a building collapses, it falls down not under the control of anybody. Societal collapse is for the key indicators of our society--material standards of living, peace, trust in the government, and other things, to fall, without control.

Collapse is Near

The situation for us is kind of like living in a city which has earthquakes, let's say Tokyo or San Francisco. I can tell my friend in San Francisco that with 100% probability there is going to be another really big earthquake in San Francisco-absolutely, no uncertainty about it. But when, that is the question. And how big? These are really important questions. We don't have any idea when. It could be tomorrow; it could be thirty years from now. The same thing with collapse. I know that the current growth in population and in material use cannot continue--absolutely, with 100% probability, that it is going to stop. When? How? How seriously? We have no scientific way to make predictions."

[end of Meadows transcript]

Fine. It's like a building in Chile, if you expect it and prepare for collapse, or a concrete pancake in Haiti, if you don't. Next week we'll look at a more dangerous definition of collapse.

In this program, we'll hear two of the most prominent voices. Dumb media calls them "collapsniks". I have much more respect. Dmitry Orlov keeps piercing the veil with his insights, gained partly from his bridging the gap between the former Soviet Union, and the increasingly dysfunctional United States.

John Michael Greer has moved from the edge of mysticism, into a thought leader for alternative culture. You won't find either one on your father's radio stations. This is Radio Ecoshock.

[Dmitry Orlov interview, 25 minutes, available separately as an mp3 on our Peak Oil page]

Many people take their lead on collapse from the work of Joseph Tainter, the Head of the Department of Environment and Society at Utah State University. His book "The Collapse of Complex Societies" was published in 1988. Tainter looks at past civilizations, from the Maya to the Romans, to see they fell down. To quote from Wikipedia:

"Tainter argues that societies collapse when their investments in social complexity reach a point of diminishing marginal returns. He recognizes collapse when a society rapidly sheds a significant portion of its complexity."

Let's hear a short clip from Joseph Tainter, found at archeologychannel.org

[Tainter reading]

"Modern society, doom-sayers tell us, may be destroyed by pollution, over-population, global warming, energy shortages, or collision with an asteroid.

Economists argue the opposite: that as long as we remain entrepreneurial, we can overcome all challenges. Most of us hope the economists are right, but wish we could understand better why societies succeed or fail.

Societies regularly face wars, catastrophes, changes in climate, and economic distress. We respond to problems today much as people did before, and from these commonalities we can learn about collapse, resiliency and sustainability.

An illuminating collapse was that of the Western Roman Empire in the Fifth century A.D. The Romans found conquest highly profitable at first, as they seized the accumulated wealth of the Mediterranean lands. But for a one-time infusion of wealth, Rome took on responsibilities to administer and defend the empire. These responsibilities lasted centuries, and had to be paid from yearly agricultural production.

When there were extraordinary expenses, usually during wars, the government often found itself short of money. The usual strategy was to stretch the currency by adding copper. This was inflationary, and by the middle of the Third century A.D., the empire was bankrupt. The government would not even accept its own coins for payment of taxes.

In the half century from 235 to 284, the empire nearly came to an end. There were foreign and civil wars, almost without interruption. Cities were sacked and provinces devastated. In the late Third and early Fourth centuries A.D., the emperors Diocletian and Constantine responded by designing a government that was larger, more complex, more highly organized, and much more costly. They doubled the size of the army at great expense. To pay for this, peasants were taxed so heavily that they abandoned lands and could not replenish the population.

In the late Fourth century, the Barbarians forced their way into the Western empire. They overthrew the last Emperor in Italy in 476 A.D.

I call this 'the Roman model' of problem solving. The Romans responded to challenges by increasing the size and complexity of their government and army, at great expense. Fiscal weakness, and exploitation of the population undermined the effort, and made collapse inevitable.

The Eastern Roman Empire survived the Fifth century crisis. We know it today as the Byzantine Empire. It was constantly at war, and in the early Seventh century, a twenty six year war with Persia left both sides exhausted. Arab armies seized the wealthiest parts of the Byzantine realm, and destroyed the Persian Empire entirely.

Soon the Arabs were attacking Constantinople itself, the Byzantine capital. Yet the Byzantines made a remarkable recovery. They settled their professional army of farmlands across the Empire. Soldiers now provided most of their own sustenance, and the government paid them a much lower salary.

Byzantine government and society simplified also. Cities contracted to fortified hill-tops. The economy became organized around self-sufficient manors. Literacy declined.

The simplification rejuvenated Byzantium, which not only halted the Arab advance, but eventually doubled the size of the Empire. Unlike the Romans, who met challenges by increasing the complexity and costliness, the Byzantines show us what may be history's only example of a large complex society systematically simplifying. I label this 'the Byzantine model.'"

[end quote from Professor Joseph Tainter, University of Utah.]

Personally, I find Tainter's explanations a bit too business-oriented, a little too convenient for slashing employees and government help. And our understanding of collapse has come a long way from 1988, when his seminal book came out, I'm sure he would agree. Now that we're closer to it, some of the dirt has been wiped off the lens. But Joseph Tainter continues to be a great source for those interested in collapse.

When Radio Ecoshock continues, we'll go further, with the Arch druid, John Michael Greer. Stay tuned, while you can.

[interview with John Michael Greer, available as a separate interview on our Peak Oil page]

In 2005, John Michael Greer published a scholarly paper titled "How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse."

Greer finds Tainter's explanations lack some positive feed-back loops, the self-reinforcing drivers of decline emerging from things like limited resources, and failing biosphere. In the later stages of a civilization, most of the capital is converted into waste. Can anyone spell junk bonds or credit default swaps?

There has certainly been a downturn in media expectations. After the year of green shoots and drum beats of recovery, there are a slew of experts gently warning we're still in the crapper. You may feel a little pain.

From the OECD economists, to J.P. Morgan, capital experts see another slide coming. Investigations into Goldman Sachs' padding the books of entire nations, like Greece, Italy and more... are leaking out the awful truth. We fixed nothing in the banking system or our economy, and we've faked our way through another year.

Recalling the models from history, as presented by Joseph Tainter, we find that collapse isn't all bad for everyone. For those toiling under the yoke of impossible imperialism, it is a relief when the war economy ends. For those eating industrial agro-garbage, real grown food tastes sweet and good again. The cynicism of our present failures morphs into new beliefs, as the old is cleaned away.

The wild Germans and Celts longed for the Fall of Rome, though they kept using some of their technologies and symbols. In Byzantium, simplification and self-sufficiency led to centuries more civilization.

I'm also reminded of Roberto Vacca's 1973 book, "The Coming Dark Age". As a computer architect, Vacca predicted modern complexity would over-reach, and fall apart. The dreaded system break down.

A version of that book, updated by the author in the year 2000, is now free on the Net.

Back in the '70's, Vacca couldn't foresee how much computers would help humans organize beyond their individual capabilities. Once we survived the urge for atomic self-annihilation, we got another thirty years out of computer assisted living. Until Windows and the mega-servers hit the virus they can't swallow. Or the power goes out in a mega storm. Richard Heinberg warns most or our ready-to-click knowledge could disappear in a day, without the machines.

Meanwhile, you can feed your worries with the new article coming out this week in the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs. The Harvard historian Niall Ferguson calls it, "Complexity and Collapse: Empires on the Edge of Chaos." See what I mean? Everybody's on to it.

Find an accessible, shorter version of Niall Ferguson's warning here in the L.A. Times, the article titled: "America, the Fragile Empire."

We don't know where collapse is taking us, or when. Only that it's coming. Get more in next week's Radio Ecoshock on-going coverage. As Niall Ferguson writes, we may not have time to figure out the theory, if collapse comes quickly, and without warning.

I'm Alex Smith. Find lots more free audio, at our web site, ecoshock.org Thank you for listening.

Program Notes:
Our background music is "Open Up You Eyes" by Awake. The band dedicated another song, "Industrial Cemeteries" to our guest, John Michael Greer. The album is "Dark Matter".

You also heard the bull-horn overlay from London, England found in this You tube montage titled "Everything Is OK"

The Economy: Dinosaurs Will Die

Welcome to Radio Ecoshock. This week's program is about schizophrenia: the state of hoping the system will crash before it kills the planet, while counting on all the usual creature comforts of home, jobs, and a well-stocked supermarket.

Yes, I know the Western world is hanging in suspension. We're waiting for the shopping to resume, for the economy to rebound, for the good life to return. Most politicians and the mainstream press promise that it will all go back to the normal process of chewing up and spitting out the last of the planet's goodness.

Meanwhile we go to movies like 2012, slurping up scenes of the destruction of everything. Part of our secret selves hopes it all goes down in flames, or floods. Even while we worry about our children having a decent life. You see how it goes?

I know you are worried about the economy. Maybe even your own job or home is at risk. Despite the propaganda, we'd be crazy not to worry about it. I've been told the general formula for every speech and radio program goes as follows: we paint the grim picture, but always, always end on a positive note. Give humans solutions, or they'll just go numb and do nothing.

Sorry. This week we violate the rules. Lately Radio Ecoshock has run a series about greening our cities. A couple of listeners have written back, saying cities can never be sustainable, as Derrick Jensen says. Have I fallen into the camp of false good cheer?

We'll start out with one of the most promising solutions I've heard about lately - a dream of new economics coming from a British government advisor, Professor Tim Jackson. He's got a new book out "Prosperity Without Growth".

Then we'll head into more pessimistic territory with Dave Cohen, an analyst for ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. Having written the American Empire is now obviously in decline, Cohen asks "Now What?" We talk more about the economic crisis, Wall Street bull (and bears) - and the energy crisis.

Along with James Howard Kuntsler, and our recent guest Richard Heinberg, Cohen says normal consumption is never coming back. We might as well prepare ourselves for very hard times.

We'll trash smug Canadians a bit, since real estate north of the border is just as stupidly over-leveraged as the American market. Then we'll notice Australia melting in the heat, while they push even more coal. A big Canadian company has just bought into the dirty Aussie coal market. Aren't we proud?

In the end, I wonder, is hope just getting in the way of dealing with the limits of reality?

This show is peppered with audio clips, including shorties from Max Keiser, Jeff Buckley's song "The Sky Is A Landfill", Bob Holman's "We Are the Dinosaur", and of course ending with the show title "Dinosaurs Will Die" from NOFX. We open with "Times Is Hard" by Loudon Wainwright III.

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The Future: Dark or Resilient?

Hi there.

We have so much great audio for you this week - I don't have time to tell you about it. Buckle up for a new Radio Ecoshock interview with Richard Heinberg, famous Peak Oiler, author of "The Party's Over", "Powerdown" and now his latest "Blackout: Coal, Climate, and the Last Energy Crisis."

Then it's off to the Resilient Cities conference for the keynote speech by Paul Hawken, author of the Ecology of Commerce, and lately, "Blessed Unrest" - the strength of movements to make social change.

A double-decker audio blast. Let's go.

We were lucky to get Richard Heinberg. It's not just that he's now famous as a mover and shaker in the "post-carbon" movement. Or that he does big speeches and big media interviews all the time. But Richard jealously guards his time for research. Heinberg doesn't just offer opinions. He digs into the background, the facts, the stats - as he did for the coal industry for his new book "Blackout".

I followed some of Heinberg's research in the regular issues of his newsletter, called the "Museletter". I get it by email. Or you can find it here.


We talk about coal. Will available coal run out in just a decade or two? Why build new coal plants at all? Will a coal shortage, or "peak coal" save us from climate change? (No).

But I also ask Heinberg about his new concern. We could experience a different kind of "blackout". What if the electricity goes out, or becomes spotty, and all our knowledge for this civilization is in computers? Without backups in paper libraries, we are risking it all, just as energy to run those electric plants becomes questionable. I'll bet this becomes Heinberg's newest book. Find out more about "Our Evanescent Culture" here.

Paul Hawken is a man beloved by many people, in many social movements. His 1998 book "The Ecology of Commerce" became a hit in business schools. He also co-wrote "Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution" with Amory and Hunter Lovins, and lately "Blessed Unrest, How the Largest Movement in the World Came into Being and Why No One Saw It Coming".

That book blossomed into a database of organizations working for a better ecology and social justice - millions of them, around the world, found at wiserearth.org. Very helpful to find groups in your area - so get active!

I was surpised to find that Paul was one of the first into the whole foods business in the United States in the early 70's - Erewhon Natural Foods. And Hawken is still active in business - but now in the new digital age. He's got a couple of companies which specialize in data distribution and other exotica. Check out his bio at http://www.paulhawken.com/

We broadcast Paul Hawken's keynote address to the Gaining Ground Resilient Cities conference in Vancouver, Canada on October 20th, 2009, recorded by Alex Smith for Radio Ecoshock. The topic: "The City and the Resilient Future" Enjoy.

Find it online at ecoshock.org, in our program archive, and on our "Cities" page. I've uploaded a ton of speeches from that Resilient Cities summit - they had some of the best speakers in the world! People at the top of their game, the best. I've got some more to post, once I've prepared the audio, including Richard Register, the dean of eco-cities.

So far you'll find Bill Rees of course, Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson's new green plan (announced at the Summit), and an intriguing speech by Sarah Severn of Nike. Normally I don't post much corporate stuff (they can afford to advertise themselves) - but this shows what a corporation can do - even without prodding by the government.

I didn't know "Nike Air" actually contained a terrible global warming gas down there in the shoes. Sarah explains how Nike replaced it with common Nitrogen, harmless. Nike is based in Portland, and I've included 6 minutes of her climate initiative in a special on Portland, which I call "Greening Portland". That features Mayor Sam Adams, plus his green city leaders Susan Anderson and Erin Flynn. I like how Adams gave up the stage for the women who are actually doing a lot of the work. You don't often see that, and we should.

Find all that here: http://www.ecoshock.org/DNcities.html - and check back in a week or two for more from the Resilient Cities Summit. You'll likely hear more on Radio Ecoshock as well, including Richard Register.

Our bits of music this week came from Million Dollar Nile, the Seattle green band. Good music, with a green message (and not phony or stilted like so much we hear).

Alex Smith
Radio Ecoshock

RESILIENT CITIES for Transition Times #1

THIS WEEK: The latest speeches from the "Gaining Ground/Resilient Cities" conference in Vancouver, Canada October 20-23.

You'll hear Post Carbon Institute fellow, and green city guide author Warren Karlenzig - plus former Shell Oil executive (now turned anti-corporate activist) Anita Burke. Much more in the coming weeks, as we hear from Paul Hawken, Richard Register, Bill Rees and more. This is the latest on the latest, from people struggling to plan for the "long emergency" facing our cities and our society.

Here is how I started off the show, before out two main speeches:

Don't you sense the artificial calm?

Every financial loss and boon-doggle is translated into the language of recovery. A monster company losses 27 percent of it's business, but that's "up" from 30 percent lass month.

Wells Fargo bank, sitting on a pile of mortgages you could smell from the Moon, reports a billion dollar profit from, quote, "hedging mortgage servicing costs". Which sound to me like betting on your own bad assets.

While we enjoyed our Summer holidays, during the slow news cycle, over 900,000 more homes were foreclosed in America. That's a lot of kids and old folks with broken lives and broken bank accounts, with lots more to come.

It's always the slow news cycle now, in the mainstream media. The real reporters have been sent home, as advertising revenue crashes. Magazines and magazine stands are closing. Even major TV networks are slashing and teetering on the edge.

The fog machines are rolling. Everything, even the worst, is just part of "the recovery". Everyone admits government advertising, stories planted by the CIA, and Wall Street bull is messaging us, pleading with the masses, to keep on shopping. It's propaganda.

I'm not buying it. I'll bet you aren't either.

One spooky side effect: as government tax revenues fall off a cliff, and corporations slash their good will community lending - countless non-profit organizations are also struggling, or quietly closing up. A ballet company folds, after-school volunteer programs can't get bus money, personal assistants for the severely disabled can't get paid.

I don't know about you - but I've received dozens of desperate appeals from well-known bulwarks of social change - threatening to disappear without my immediate financial donation. The fabric and richness of our society is coming apart.

What's left is an eerie silence. We know something is going on, but we don't know what it is.

Just one example: part of my mission is to record the brightest minds for Radio Ecoshock listeners. A couple of years ago, we had a regular parade of authors and lecturers rolling through town, many funded by book publishers. This Fall, there was a drought of speeches. The last of the struggling book publishers slashed speaker tours in favor of Web promotion. That's good for the atmosphere - less flying around - but bad for all that personal interaction, when people educate themselves with events that enrich their brains and hearts.

This past week, a whole crowd of climate, sustainability and green city folks descended upon Vancouver. Three conferences, plus added shoulder events, gathered around the 6th annual "Gaining Ground: Resilient Cities" conference, offering "Urban Strategies for Transition Times".

Finally, a forum for answers. How are we going to live in cities, with dwindling energy supplies, an economy in need of serious remodeling, and a food system in dangerous disrepair? Can we plan for rising seas, storms and heat events - now that 4 degree global warming seems almost inevitable?

Some of the great names, people who have labored at these questions all their lives, showed up, pouring out their hearts and brains. People like Paul Hawken, Richard Register, and Bill Rees. Plus the new crowd, break-through women, two green mayors, and authors galore. They spoke, I recorded, and you get the green gold for the next few weeks of Radio Ecoshock.

In one week, this meeting of the minds tried to plot out a survivable direction for world cities, the place where more than half of all humans now live. "Sustainable" is out. They called it "Resilient Cities" now - because everyone knows we are coming in for some hard knocks. Nobody knows how to stop the financial hurricane or the rising seas. We just hope to organize for the long emergency, to develop our ability to bounce back. To be resilient.

In the same October week in Vancouver, The Canadian Society for Ecological Economics held their 8th Biennial Conference. Plus another meeting, dubbed "Resilient People Plus Climate Change". Did I mention the panel held by the Vancouver Peak Oil group, or the evening presentation by the Post Carbon Institute?

It was a flood of enviro's, would-be green politico's, iconic authors, scientists and energy specialists, in three crazy days and nights.

Maybe this is the new paradigm, as green conscious activists organize to hold several conferences at once, exchanging speakers, saving carbon spewing air flights. One thing for sure: it felt like a movement, a gathering of the wise heads, a mixture of panic and determination, to steer a different course.

Welcome to Radio Ecoshock. I'm Alex Smith.

My hard drive is sagging with super audio for you. Later in the show we'll hear a former Shell executive demand an end to the fossil fuel regime. But our first guest speaker will set the stage.
That's Warren Karlenzig.

The buzz these days is greening big cities. New York rediscovers EcoDensity, while West Coast mayors vie for title of most green.

But most North Americans don't live in big cities. The vast majority live in suburbs, or just beyond in the exurbs, the land of mini-estates and 3 bay garages.

I learned that, and much more about the real struggle of car-dependency in America - from Warren Karlenzig. He's the author of "How Green is Your City? The SustainLane US City Rankings" - the book used by citizens and planners alike to measure real livability.

Karlenzig is a recognized figure in the California sustainability movement, an advisor to governments and big corporations, a media spokesman. I'd characterize him as ubiquitous, a specialist in facts, often reporting on green success in many parts of the world. He's the President of Common Current, and a Fellow at the Post Carbon Institute - which hosted the speech we're about to hear.

In October 2009, Vancouver Canada hosted the conference "Gaining Ground, Resilient Cities". The Post Carbon Institute organized an evening with Warren Karlenzig, along with authors Daniel Lerch and Bill Rees. From "Urban Resilience in a Post Carbon World," here is Warren Karlenzig, recorded October 20th by Radio Ecoshock.

We also heard an impassioned speech from Anita Burke, a former Shell Oil exec, now an activist for change. Anita rocked the room by calling for an end to our current economic system, and most of our social models - all leading to catastrophe.

Not everyone agreed with her solutions - maybe not the mayors for rebuilding green cities. The nice Nike woman talking climate-safe running shoes didn't say that either.

Bill Rees would have cheered on Anita Burke. Bill is the professor who invented the "eco-footprint" concept - and he's on a rampage. Apparently, the business-as-usual world is headed for breakdown - as we'll hear from our Bill Rees special, next week on Radio Ecoshock.

Don't forget our web site: ecoshock.org. The Resilient City speeches will be appearing on our "Cities" page over the next few weeks.

Beyond 4 Degrees

What will our grandchildren experience in the year 2080? Or will some of you feel the heat, the climate and social disruption as soon as 2060? Scientific studies are pouring out their warnings - we have already passed the danger levels. And there is no sign of action to stop horrible climate change.

What if the politicians fail to reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to keep the Earth's climate from warming? What if the people of the world keep on pumping out carbon dioxide, as they now do? Can we survive? Will the Earth hit runaway climate change, morphing to another Venus?

The widely accepted danger line is 2 degrees Celsius, that's 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit, global mean temperature rise over pre-industrial levels. We have already warmed at least .7 degrees C. Counting the masking effect of other pollution, the warming in the pipeline may already be around the 2 degree level - and the major polluters show no sign of agreeing on steep cuts at the Copenhagen climate treaty talks in December 2009.

So what will happen?

In this program, we're going to cover major new scientific reports about our climate situation. Then, almost as a relief, we'll go to an interview with one of the long-time activists with solutions, from the UK, Dr. Jeremy Leggett. He's an oil expert who crossed over to Greenpeace, before becoming a solar energy entrepreneur.

I also have some new climate music for you.

Right now, we'll get hot and heavy with an international climate conference held at Oxford in Britain from September 28th to the 30th. The title is: 4 DEGREES & BEYOND. We'll hear the results of some of the first scientific studies of a failed climate world. I have a digest of a speech from Professor John Schellnhuber.

MUSIC IN THIS PROGRAM

"Radio, Radio" by Elvis Costello
"Don't Kilowatt" by Seattle group Million Dollar Nile

LINK FOR AUDIO AND SLIDES FROM "4 Degrees & Beyond" Conference:


MAJOR SPEAKERS

1. Prof John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research "Terra quasi-incognita: beyond the 2 degree line. (past director of Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)

2. Dr. Richard Betts, Met Office Hadley Centre "Regional climate changes at 4+ degrees"

3. Prof Nigel Arnell, University of Reading 4+ degrees C: impacts across the global scale

4. Dr. Pier Vellinga, Wageningen University, "Sea level rise and impacts in a 4+C World

5. Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, "Sea-level rise in a 4 degree world

6. Prof David Karoly, University of Melbourne "Wildfire in a 4+ C degree World

7. Dr. François Bemenne, Sciens Po Paris "Cimate-induced Population Displacements in a 4+ degree World

The conference opened with one of the top climate advisors in the world. Professor John Schellnhuber is from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. He is a past director of Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The German version of his name is Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. He has directly advised many heads of government, including Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, and even Barack Obama. The title of his talk: "Terra quasi-incognita: beyond the 2 degree line."

This was a presentation to fellow scientists, so part of it is heavy going for the rest of us. It was accompanied by slides, and I'll give you the web address for those.

In order to hit some key points from this speech, and several others from the 4 Degree conference, covering several hours of audio, I'm going to attempt a digest of this latest science.

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Gas Pump Blues - for 100,000 Years

They're on practically every corner. Some people feel nervous at the gas pump. Others are outraged. Everybody knows prices are going nowhere but up.

Did you know a gallon of gas weighs about 6 pounds - or 2.7 kilos? Almost all of it - 5 pounds, 2.2 kilos - goes straight into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, out the exhaust pipe. And that substantial weight, for every additional gallon or liter we burn, remains as CO2 for 100,000 years.

Don't believe it? Stay tuned. We'll talk with David Archer, a top climate scientist. He's the author of "The Long Thaw". That's what we're living in, the time all humans will live in, for ten times the length of all history. In our second half hour.

First, I want to know: when does the oil society seize up? What happens to the American way of life, if gasoline goes to $7 a gallon? That's what financial expert Jeff Rubin predicts. Think that's tough? What about $20 a gallon?

We're going to dive right into an interview with Chris Steiner. Christopher Steiner is senior staff reporter at Forbes magazine. His new book is Twenty Dollars per Gallon: How the inevitable rise in the price of gasoline will change our lives - for the better.

READ MORE
with more links.

WHEN THE GREAT CORRECTION COMES

This is Alex Smith.

In this new start to the Fall 2009 season, we thrash out the triple crisis with Jan Lundberg, a former oil and gas industry expert. I say former, because he left "the Lundberg Oil and Gas Letter" in the late '80's, to become a voice for change. Jan's been an early warner on Peak Oil and our energy dependency. He also knows that climate change is going to change the human game, more or less forever.

Despite the California fires, the new tent cities, and car company bankruptcies, Lundberg is an incurable optimist. He's long left his car behind to work on better alternatives. Today we'll talk about the unstoppable changes coming our way. The transition towns, super-low energy consumers, people with vision.

A lot of them gather around Jan Lundberg's blog, simply called culturechange.org.

After our full-length interview, I toss in my challenge to listeners: in what year will the human race become extinct? In a speech at New York's Green Fest 2009, John Doscher predicted 2033. That seems so soon! I'll barely have my student loan repaid by then!

Doscher's ideas about over-fishing leading to ocean dead zones, followed by blasts of methane and hydrogen sulfide from de-composing algae - seem so crazy. Not that I can't find genuine scientists who say the same. On Canada's East Coast, Dr. Boris Worms predicted sea food, the stuff we eat, will become extinct by 2048. In an earlier Radio Ecoshock interview, Dr. Peter Ward said hydrogen sulfide, from a de-oxygenated ocean, may have killed off 90% of life on the planet, in one of the past great die-offs.

In August, the Chief Science adviser to the UK government, Sir John Beddington, says 2030 will be a crisis point for humans. That's because we'll have 8 billion people, needing twice the food we now supply. With half the water we now have.

Beddington warns of hideous starvation, forced mass migrations, and climate ravaged lands. But...being a government man, he still thinks humanity will come out of it alive.

That's all in my radio review of Doscher's speech - which was broadcast on another 20 stations in Lynn Gary's fabulous underground program "Unwelcome Guests".

I'm gathering predictions. If you've found someone setting the Big Date for the end of human life as we know it, please send a link to your source to radio [at] ecoshock.org. It could be a future program. Meanwhile, in the radio program, I have a little fun with the end of the world.

BUT THE MAIN ATTRACTION IS:

In part one of our wide-ranging discussion, Jan Lundberg explains how a burp in our oil supply line could multiply into a widespread economic and social breakdown, in weeks or even days - no matter how much oil is still in the ground somewhere.

Then we go for more answers. Are we building lifeboats for a fortunate few, or are these seeds of a whole new society?

Our theme music today is "The Great Correction" by Eliza Gilkyson. I've put in a request to interview Gilkyson, who more than paid her dues getting the real raw into her music. Check out her myspace page for classics like "Runaway Train" and "The Party's Over".


UPCOMING SHOWS

Speaking of fossil fuel funerals, we've got some great guests coming up for you. Richard Heinberg, the original "The Party's Over" guy, will tell us about his new book "Blackout". Everybody figures when the oil runs out, we'll keep the lights on with dirty old coal. Think again. Heinberg says those coal reserves aren't there, and we couldn't burn them if they were.

Or what if gas goes to $10 a gallon? $20? Author Christopher Steiner will tell us about his new book. From the UK, Jeremy Leggett talks dead oil and living the solar life. Scientist Alan Robock is set to join us. We'll talk about the end of blue skies. Ready for another white-out day?

We'll also talk poor white trash and ecocide with gonzo writer Joe Bageant, author of "Deer Hunting With Jesus" - coming up next week.

Join us next week for Joe Bageant, one the most unusual, and fun interviews I've ever done.

And grab a whole bunch of past Radio Ecoshock shows, as free mp3 downloads, from our web site, ecoshock.org.

Thanks for listening.

Alex

THIS IS IT! The ship is going down.

This is Radio Ecoshock. I'm Alex Smith with eye-popping headlines on the triple crisis: Peak Oil, climate change, and economic collapse.

While America basks in Obama, Europe quietly fell further apart over the week-end. On Martin Luther King Day, the British government announced more hundreds of billions to prop up banks and bad bets. Stocks in Barclay Bank fell to 25 percent in less than an hour. The largest, Royal Bank of Scotland, is already 80 percent owned by the government.

The same in Ireland. Both countries look close to nationalization of their banking system. Even some government officials wonder whether Britian itself faces either bankruptcy or a complete collapse of the British pound. Unthinkable stuff.

Jim Rogers, the famous expatriate American billionaire, says the big American banks are bankrupt themselves. Hardly anyone argues that point any more. The U.S. government tossed another 20 billion dollars to the Bank of America, and guaranteed more than a hundred billion dollars in worthless paper generated by the former Merrill Lynch. The world's largest bank, Citi Group, has lost more billions, and is splitting up into two.

At least a dozen countries, national governments, are close to bankruptcy. Not just former success stories like Iceland and Ireland. The credit rating of Spain has been downgraded. Italy may be technically bankrupt. The Balkans are a mess, as is most of Eastern Europe, right up to Latvia and Lithuania.

We haven't even discussed economic chaos in the Middle East and Asia.

This is it friend. The great ship of modern production has hit the iceberg. The band may still be playing sweetly in the First Class Ballroom, but the cold sea water is filling the holds below.

It will settle by degrees, no doubt. A wave of closures this March. Quiet desperation over the Summer. A lot of dancing, new announcements, the most reckless spending moves. All stalling the inevitable revaluation. We have yet to live the leaden doldrums, the years of suffering, before the real reformation comes.

In today's program, the Head of the International Energy Agency admits oil production has peaked out, and time is running out for the planet's climate. While we were all enthralled with non-stop coverage of the U.S. elections, this speech by Fatih Birol got buried. Are you ready to cut your energy use by 9 percent every year? Get ready, because the oil is running out.

Here is the Youtube video (about an hour) of Fatih Birol speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations on December 1st, 2008. Our program runs his 15 minute speech, with notes and exclamation points added.

In our second half hour, I'll interview Christine MacDonald, author of the book Green Inc. She claims the biggest environmental groups have been covering for multinational corporations, in cosy relationships, for giant salaries. What will we see in the green mirror?

Then we'll wrap up with Van Jones. He has a vision for those left behind in America's poverty ghettos. It's a green vision, where those with the most need, produce what America needs most: carbon-free energy. Van Jones testifies to Congress.

Here's just a few of the headlines that got my attention recently.

The managing director of the world's biggest bond fund, Bill Gross of Pimco, admits the whole economy was really a Ponzi scheme. Gross said the U.S. had been running, quote "our Ponzi-style economy".

Another bright light, Meredith Whitney - the stock analyst who bravely said the Emperor of Wall Street had no clothes - now says all of the 300 billion dollars of U.S. government TARP money has simply disappeared, covering banking losses. No wonder there is no money to loan. Pretty predictable really. Coming generations will be harnessed to debt for absolutely nothing. At least until they refuse.

Meanwhile, on the climate front, Indonesia has announced over a billion dollars for new railroads. Does that sound like good news? It's not. The rails will move coal reserves from South Sumatra to the coal ships. Onward to Asia's multiplying coal stations, and runaway climate change.

Climate blogger Joseph Romm, recently a guest on Radio Ecoshock, points out a new study published in Geophysical Research Letters. Scientists from South Korea's Pohany University found, quote, "Sudden, considerable reduction in recent uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the East/Japan Sea." If true, the ocean burial ground for our carbon binge may be full. Next week on Radio Ecoshock, we'll talk with a top American scientist who questions this research. He should know. Pieter Tans is Chief Scientist for NOAA's global carbon monitoring program.

At climateprogress.org, Joe Romm also says: "China announces plan to single-handedly destroy the climate. China to increase coal production 30 percent by 2015"
That big increase in coal power was just announced by the government of China. The increase, Romm writes, will be "an amount equal to two-thirds of the entire coal consumption of the United States -- an amount that surpasses all of the coal consumed today in Europe, Eurasia, the Middle East, Africa, and Central and South America."

Mommy, how do you spell "toasted planet?"

As the Titanic settles, there are more fancy balls to attend. Kate Sheppard wrote about two supposedly Green inauguration parties in Gristmill, the environmental blog, for January 19th. I quote her now:

"Tonight's dueling balls showcase an interesting dichotomy within the green movement. Gore's ball, which has more of an activist bent, is co-hosted by the Sierra Club, the Natural Resources Defense Council, Earthjustice, the Vote Solar Initiative, and Youth for Environmental Sanity, among many other groups and businesses. Wal-Mart, KPMG, and the American Gas Association are also on board, but these and other corporate sponsors have incorporated green practices into their businesses, say the Gore folk. The organizers are decorating with tree seedlings, using recycled-fiber carpet, recycling and composting waste, and offsetting their carbon emissions. The food is going to be organic, and cooked across the street, to lower the carbon footprint, natch. Will.i.am and Maroon 5 will serenade the crowd.

The International Conservation Caucus Foundation's ball is hosted by The Nature Conservancy, Conservation International, and WWF, among others, and will be just a few blocks down the street. "Roses will be flown in from Ecuador. Marinated beef is being flown in from Texas to Virginia, where it will be grilled and then trucked to the auditorium," reports the Times. "We are not into symbolism," said caucus president David H. Barron. "We are focused on a much bigger impact." As the Times puts it, "the caucus gala sticks to its philosophy that the environment and wildlife are most effectively protected by governments and businesses." To that end, sponsors include ExxonMobil, Chevron, International Paper, and Wal-Mart (which appears to be hedging its bets). Famous anticipated guests include Robert Duvall, Bo Derek, and Ed Norton."

That's a report from Kate Sheppard at gristmill.grist.org.

And that leads us to our next report, with Christine MacDonald. She worked for Conservation International, and didn't like the company it keeps.

[Interview with Christine MacDonald, author of "Green Inc"]


I'd like to take you now to the Committee Rooms of Congress, to hear another great African American voice, Van Jones. This is the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, chaired by Ed Markey. They get the best.

In this brief testimony on January 15th, 2009, Van Jones explains how to beat America's energy poverty, while giving work to those who need it most.

[Van Jones]

Van Jones is both a civil rights activist and environmental advocate in Oakland, California. His Green Jobs program came out of the Ella Baker Center for Human Rights. He's got a web site at vanjones.net.

I'm Alex Smith. You can find my kingdom of free green audio at ecoshock.org

Save yourself, your neighborhood, or just a lonely planet. Load up your Ipod or computer with free mp3 files on the triple threat: the environment, peak oil, and the new hard times.

Mother Earth will thank you.

Until next week.

Alex Smith

Radio Ecoshock

RESILIENT CITIES Peak Oil & Climate

Can a city really work without oil? How will we ever make the transition?

I'm Alex Smith for Radio Ecoshock - and you are in for a treat. Professor Peter Newman has designed public transport in Australia, and studied sustainable cities all over the world. Now we'll hear his first speech of the book tour for "Resilient Cities - Responding to Peak Oil and Climate Change."

The one hour talk, on January 9th, 2009, was hosted by Anthony Perl of Simon Fraser University, in Vancouver Canada. Professor Perl is the co-author of "Transportation Revolution" and a driving force in new city design.

In this speech, Peter Newman acknowledges the possibility of city crash, the "Mad Max" movie scenario as oil and the climate decline. Perhaps the rich will retire behind armed eco-friendly barracks. One of the best aspects of this speech: Newman doesn't gloss over the recent economic crash, or human nature under capitalism, as though city planners acted in a vaccume. He admits, we may well go down in a messy way, and outlines what that might look like.

But Peter Newman also sees a better way out. I dared to hope, after hearing him - which is a dangerous emotion in these times.

The place was packed to standing room only, mostly young people. There was a definite buzz.

Peter is no mere theorist. He's headed up sustainable city design in Australia, and is now an adviser for a 20 billion dollar fund for a green rebuild of Australia's infrastructure. He is plugged in to city designers all over the world, and much in demand.

In this program you hear the complete kick-off speech for his book tour. The title is "Resilient Cities - Responding to Peak Oil and Climate Change." just published by Island Press.

Just when you think freeway dead-zones have conquered the world, Newman tells us about Seoul, South Korea. The city built a multi-land freeway right over the central river, which was considered sacred for centuries. A consumer-based political party got elected - and demanded the freeway be torn down! Within 5 years the huge mass of concrete was carted away, the river exposed, and redeveloped into green spaces and cafes on either side. The result changed the city and society for the better by far.

You'll hear about another city in Europe that made itself famous by "re-discovering" a buried river.

Peter Newman is huge on trains. He's instigated a few in Australia - and they've been packed from day one. More than that, new planning calls for "Transit Oriented Destinations" - a kind of complete walking suburb our on the rail lines. Developments happen around rapid transit nodes.

Newman also gives examples comparing American cities with European and Asian ones. Among all major cities, Atlanta is the most unsustainable city in his charts, with Houston not far behind. But it doesn't have to be that way, as he explains how to get out of the deep oil hole. Again, there is an example of Tyson's Corner in the U.S.A.

The book is not an academic dead-weight - it's quite user-friendly and compact. You want to skim though it, but get caught up in fascinating examples of how we can save cities, despite giant challenges. It hits you where you live.

You can download this speech, and the previous Radio Ecoshock on "Transport Revolution" by Perl and Gilbert from our web site at ecoshock.org. Select Transporation from our audio on demand menu. The whole site is loaded with free mp3 downloads.

A realistic but hopeful speech, definitely the best so far in 2009.

The Radio Ecoshock Show 090116 1 hour CD Quality (56 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)

Recorded by Alex Smith.

PEAK CLIMATE

A double-header, with two "don't miss it" interviews.

We start out with Dr. Peter Ward author of the revolutionary climate book "Under A Green Sky." Peter has just returned from an exploratory trip in Australia, and will head to Antarctica later this year.

Dr. Ward has summarized the newest science which shows that 4 out of the past 5 great extinctions were not caused by asteroid hits - but by wrenching and deadly climate change. The cause? Carbon dioxide belching out of volcanoes. But now we are the volcanoes - and the end result may be the same: out of control climate turbulence followed by the deafening silence of mass extinctions.

Dr. Ward tells us about the new TV series coming out on Animal Planet - called "Animal Armageddon". Peter is the chief scientists on that project, which hopes to bring the awful reality of climate change to television watchers.

Then we go for solutions. Julian Darley, author of "High Noon for Natural Gas" saw our energy crisis coming years ago. We are hitting Peak Oil - production can't go up, and will go down. You may have noticed this little problem at the pump. And in the storms hitting the Americas, and Asia.

Darley explains why he founded The Post Carbon Institute and gives us some tips on how to solve the energy crisis - without waiting for some miracle technology. We look at emerging solutions like relocalize.net - and his experiment with sharing commercial vehicles. Good stuff.

Music is "House of Trouble" by Clatter.

PEAK OIL AND THE MEDIA

Experts predict Mexico, America's number 3 oil producer, will run out of oil in just 7 years. OPEC producers have been lying about their reserves for years. The world is starting new subterranean military tensions - or outright wars - just to keep our Hummers humming.

Our whole life depends upon oil based fertilizers, oil based plastics, oil based medicines. The whole world wants to cache in on fossil energy supplies, just as supplies are getting harder to find, more expensive to produce.

Now gas prices go through the roof.

Why is the public so unprepared? Why isn't mainstream media explaining oil decline, and it's impact on society?

What we can do. Vancouverpeakoil.org presents a panel of 5 journalists: Rex Weyler, Barbara Jaffe, Charlie Smith, Sara Robinson and Alex Smith. How to organize, use media, bypass the mainstream. Ecoshock Show 080829 1 hour
CD Quality 56 MB or Lo-Fi 14 MB

Rex Weyler is a founder of Greenpeace, author of "Greenpeace the Inside Story" among other books, a Vancouver publisher, editor, and online columnist with The Tyee. In addition to his concerns about climate change, Rex is on the executive of the Vancouver peak oil group.

Barbara Jaffe is a famous Canadian newspaper columnist and editor, with many awards over a long career. Recently she has been warning about Peak Oil, one of the few journalists to take on the issue.

Sara Robinson is a blogger and think-tanker, originally from the United States, and lately moved to Canada. She has almost completed her degree in studies of the future. Her articles appear all over left leaning blogs.

Charlie Smith is the publisher and editor of Vancouver's most prestigious alternative newspaper, the famous Georgia Strait. You'll find he is also an outspoken critic of the mainstream media.

Alex Smith, of course, is the host of Radio Ecoshock, and appears as a voice from the radio media.

In addition to digging into the willful blindness of mainstream media, when it comes to the threat of peak oil - the panel discusses ways for citizens to organize, and get the message out. How to prepare your own community. You get the full panel presentation.

Recorded by Alex Smith, of Radio Ecoshock. No copyright, get the word out.

Production Notes: 30 sec music break at 29:30 for your station ID; or cut into end music for more time. Song: "End of the Age of Oil" by David Rovics (U.S.)

SAFE CLIMATE OR ENDLESS WAR?

Those are the choices.

CONNECTIONS FOR THIS WEEK'S RADIO ECOSHOCK SHOW
Week of May 30th, 2008

Guest: Michael T. Klare (new book "Rising Powers, Shrinking World")
Listen to the Ecoshock Klare interview here.
(http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/nuclear/ES_Klare_RisingPowers_LoFi.mp3)
Read his blog at http://www.tomdispatch.com

Space For Peace activist Bruce Gagnon
Listen to the Gagnon interview separately here.
www.ecoshock.org/downloads/nuclear/ES_Gagnon_080521_LoFi.mp3
His web site is http://space4peace.org

Dimitri Orlov on "Re-inventing Collapse. The Soviet Example and American Prospects";
I read the 5 steps of collapse from Orlov's blog at
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com (look for "older posts" at bottom). Then a clip from Orlov talking with KMO on the C-Realm podcast (http://c-realm.org).

Listen to that whole Orlov segment from the Ecoshock show here www.ecoshock.org/downloads/peakoil/ES_Orlov_Collapse_LoFi.mp3

Robert Kennedy Jr. on 5 men who run almost all U.S. media.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQIkMZadApY&feature=related

Is the American empire collapsing? Where are the $$ for new transpo & energy systems, or climate adaptation?

Download this Radio Ecoshock Show 1 hour here: CD Quality (56 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)

I was in Berlin just after the Wall had fallen. A visit to East Berlin was quite instructive - they were living the low energy life - no bright street lights, no neon signs or advertising at all.

My West German hosts were still shaking their heads in disbelief. Their government discovered the only thing keeping Russian troops in East Germany was this: the Soviet government was so bankrupt, it could not afford to bring the soldiers home. There was no housing for the troops back home, so German workers went into the Soviet Union to build apartment buildings. Then the Russian bases were closed.

Is America headed toward the same state of bankruptcy? The United States has bases in over 100 countries. The government puts it all on Master Card, they borrow the whole cost from the countries, the ones who manufacture consumer goods, and provide the oil.

In an article titled "Portrait of an Oil-Addicted Former Superpower," Michael Klare writes: "Whether we know it or not, the energy Berlin Wall has already fallen - and the United States is an ex-superpower-in-the-making."

Michael T. Klare is a professor of Peace and World Security Studies for the Five Colleges, based in Massachusetts. He is a defense columnist for The Nation Magazine. His books "Resource Wars", and then "Blood and Oil" explained our times, just ahead of time. And his newest book is "Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy." It has just come out, published by Metropolitan Books.

We discuss how militarism, and endless war, threaten our ability to adapt and survive rapid climate change. Read more from Michael Klare at his blog:
http://tomdispatch.com

Dimitri Orlov lived through the fall of the Soviet empire. He has a new book "Re-inventing Collapse. The Soviet Example and American Prospects." After some delay, that book is finally available. The publisher is New Society.

This book on collapse emerged from a series of articles titled "Post-Soviet Lessons For A Post-American Century" appearing on the web site "From the Wilderness" hosted by Michael C. Rupert. Rupert was a former cop who dedicated himself to investigating political cover-ups. In August of 2006, Rupert mysteriously disappeared, saying he no longer felt safe in the United States, after various threats and break-ins. His archive is still on the Net at fromthewilderness.com.

Anyway, Orlov outlines 5 stages or signs of collapse which I will read from his blog. Then we'll hear a short clip of Orlov, taken from the C-Realm podcast hosted by KMO.

In his blog, Orlov writes:

"Elizabeth Kübler-Ross defined the five stages of coming to terms with grief and tragedy as denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance, and applied it quite successfully to various forms of catastrophic personal loss, such as death of a loved one, sudden end to one's career, and so forth. Several thinkers, notably James Howard Kunstler and, more recently John Michael Greer, have pointed out that the Kübler-Ross model is also quite terrifyingly accurate in reflecting the process by which society as a whole (or at least the informed and thinking parts of it) is reconciling itself to the inevitability of a discontinuous future, with our institutions and life support systems undermined by a combination of resource depletion, catastrophic climate change, and political impotence....

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in "business as usual" is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that "the market shall provide" is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that "the government will take care of you" is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that "your people will take care of you" is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for "kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity" (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes "May you die today so that I die tomorrow" (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism."

Orlov doesn't predict cannibalism as a future for America - he just says some societies have reached terrible stages, and give examples in his book from the dislocated African tribe described in the book "The Mountain People" by Colin M. Turnbull.

Hopefully, by learning from previous cases of collapse, we can learn how to do better, as individual, and as a society. We shouldn't wait until things drop down to the bottom of the pit of collapse.

Find out more about Dimitri Orlov from his blog at cluborlov.blogspot.com - Orlov is spelled orlov.

Let's hear just a couple of minutes from KMO's C-Realm podcast, number 96 for May 14th, 2008. KMO and Orlov are discussing whether the people of the Soviet Union were actually better situated for collapse of their system.

Is anybody sorry the old Soviet Union is gone? They kept massive millions of their own people in prisons. Interrogators used torture. The press was censored and distorted to propaganda. You wouldn't want to live in a society like that.

I run a clip of Bobby Kennedy explaining how 5 corporations control almost all of the TV, radio and print that persuade Americans. Most of the investigative journalists have been fired. The right wing dominates it all. And Kennedy explains how Bush, in exchange for millions in donations, created a new wave of illness and pollution in the United States. The link for this powerful Youtube expose it posted above. Watch it and weep.


And that is why you need alternative media, underground radio, and people like our next guest, Bruce Gagnon.

People all over the world want the United States to take a leadership role in cleaning up fossil fuel emissions, before we lose a livable climate.

Our next guest, Bruce Gagnon says America has far different plans. Instead of converting the economy, the military industrial complex will war it's way to control of the world's energy, through domination of space.

Bruce Gagnon is a Senior Fellow at the Nuclear Policy Research Institute and Co-ordinator of the Global Network Against Weapons and Nuclear Power in Space. Find that at space4peace.org.

You must watch the video "Arsenal of Hypocracy" available from that site, and on Google Video. One hour of your time, one big enlightenment about the shiny new announcements from NASA, and the real reason America wants to dominate space.

We also discuss near-space as a threatened environment in its own right. Greens worry about protecting Antarctica, and the Amazon, without realizing that the space around the planet is so infested with space junk, we may not be able to get away from Earth - ever.

Maybe that would be a good thing for the rest of the universe, consider what we are doing down here.

Alex Smith
host
Radio Ecoshock

ADDICTED TO OIL

Even President George Bush admits we are addicted to oil. But what does that really mean?

THE PSYCHOLOGY OF ADDICTION

Dr. Bruce Alexander, a professor emeritus at Simon Fraser University in Canada, is a pioneer researching addiction. His ideas are so unconventional, he won the Stirling Prize for controversy. Bruce Alexander is currently writing a book titled "The Globalization of Addiction: A Study in the Poverty of the Spirit." - coming out this summer.

"Addiction is a democratic disease, affecting both the rich and the poor. Sadly, scientific medicine has made no progress on addiction." In addition to addictions to tobacco, alcohol, and other drugs, Alexander reminded attendees that other addictions that will increase with globalization include gambling, pornography, and shopping."

Dr. Alexander's recent study for the Centre for Policy Alternatives, "The Roots of Addiction in Free market Society", is available online, as a .pdf file.

In our Radio Ecoshock interview, we pick Dr. Alexander's brain, on the addiction that could change our climate, virtually forever - fossil fuels.

PEAK OIL AND ADDICTION

I've been listening to a talk given by Nate Hagens, at the 6th ASPO Peak Oil Conference, in Ireland. Nate is completing his PHD at the University of Vermont. There is a video of his speech online - and Hagens goes into great detail about our brain formation, and the importance of neurochemicals that determine, he says, our actions.

Rather than using our relatively recently developed neo-cortex, to making rational long-range decisions, Hagens says science repeatedly shows, we use older portions of the brain, to ensure a continuing dose of chemicals like dopamine. He suggests this inability of the brain, to let thinking dominate decision making, is one of the reasons humans are unable to make better choices for the future, like alternative energy. Instead we just keep sucking up oil, which rewards us right away, today.

Nate Hagens is perhaps unique in his experience. In his twenties, he was selling big investments, covering hundred of millions of dollars. In that world, there is a big discount for future risk, instead of taking profits now.

Hagens claims psychological tests, in monkeys for example, seem to show that novelty and reward are absolutely necessary for our brain functioning. This could lead to an explanation, of why his rich clients needed to keep making even more millions, or why the suburban housewife must buy yet another pair of expensive shoes. The more expensive, the more the charge card is loaded up, the better the chemical hit in the brain. It makes me wonder...Is our whole society really in a state near overdose?

By now almost all of us know the oil society is killing us, in many ways. We know exhaust is poisoning our lungs, deadly car crashes, the foreign wars, and now horrible prospects of climate change. And yet we still go like addicts to the gas pumps, and fill up. Why, why, why? And what can we do?

Everyone likes to laugh about the hippies going back to the land... but are those people seeking a more natural environment, where their addictions to things like television, shopping, and lottery tickets can subside? Could that be part of the answer, making our living arrangement more suitable, for the mammals we really are?

How can we apply what you've discovered, about the myths and realities of addiction, to really kick the fossil fuel habit, before it kills us?

RADIO PLAY "ECOVENTION"

While addiction is very serious, we just had to poke fun at ourselves as oil addicts. In this Radio Ecoshock show, you hear our new radio play "Ecovention." It is a parody of the A & E program "Intervention" which deals with addictions to drugs, alcohol, eating disorders, gambling and so on.

Four people helped out with this radio drama:
Matt Codrington is an up and coming Canadian actor, playing the role of "Gordon" the SUV-driving oil addict. His wife "Annette" is played by Colleen Kimmett - who in real life is a tech and science journalist. Colleen may be producing some pieces for Radio Ecoshock in the future. Sister "Ginny" was played by an anonymous radio industry personality, and Gordon's buddy "Norman" was none other than "The Simulator" - who hosts the wildly popular video podcast "It's The End of the World As We Know It" found at submedia.tv.

The play is fun, and can be downloaded to pass around, from our web site at ecoshock.org.

ADDICTED TO OIL SONG

We also got permission from Loose Bruce Kerr to play his parody of the hit "Addicted to Love" by Robert Palmer. Now it's "Addicted to Oil" - and the lyrics are great. Bruce Kerr, who is a lawyer for Sun Microsystems (good thing I got permission first!) says he is now working on a video for the song.

A BUFFET OF AUDIO CLIPS

Then we play a collection of short clips on oil addiction, and our hopes of overcoming it. You hear a snatch from a speech given by Terry Tamminen, formerly green advisor to Gov. Schwarzenegger of California. Terry wrote "Lives Per Gallon" - one of the definitive books on oil addiction. I recorded his book tour speech in Vancouver over a year ago.

You also hear a short clip from the new speech given by Tim Flannery in Toronto, also available in full from our web site. This was recorded and passed along by John-Paul Warren. Flannery describes new developments in Denmark to replace oil burning cars by all-electric ones. A company will make the new cars, and another group will make one in every six parking spaces in Copenhagen equiped with re-charging posts. You drive up, park, and plug in. The system recognizes your registration, and charges you for the power you use.

Not enough juice? The new system will also have hundreds of "refilling stations" where you can quickly exchange for a new battery. This is supposed to be faster than filling up at an old style gas station, because the cars are designed for it. Neat, eh?

We end up with a few sample quotes from Al Gore's recent (April 2008) presentation at TED, the Technology, Entertainment and Design folks. TED has some great talks, and you can still find Al Gore's new video there. Highly recommended.

In the end, I hope we all think deeply about this oil habit. It's in our lives, in our brains. But just like tobacco, or heroin, we can kick the habit. We must - of face a ruined climate, and continuous wars - not to mention empty wallets!

Good luck - and let's get clean together.

Alex Smith
Radio Ecoshock

PEAK OIL = TRANSPORTATION REVOLUTION

This week's program begins with a quick review of planet-shaking news.

Then, we go to the book launch of "Transportation Revolutions: Moving People and Freight Without Oil"

The authors are Richard Gilbert & Anthony Perl. I recorded that on March 18th, in Vancouver, Canada.

You get the speech by Richard Gilbert, plus some of the Q and A.

Both the talk, and the book, are loaded with real facts and figures on future transpo, and how to get there, sustainably. Finally, some answers.

Are you ready to see U.S. airports shrink from 300 to 30, as the oil runs out? We learn why electric cars will dominate the road. Electric railroads.

Richard Gilbert, an energy expert from Toronto Canada, opens with a speech explaining (a) the inevitability of Peak Oil and (b) what we can do about it - if we start now.

Anthony Perl, a professor at Simon Fraser University, in Vancouver, Canada - says we don't need any more road construction. Now that we know about Peak Oil, and ever-increasing oil prices, governments should "hit the pause button" on new highway construction, and airport expansions. We won't need them!

A great book for students, activists, bloggers, and citizens trying to contain the old-school enthusiasm for building new oil-based infrastructure.

As the economy deteriorates, you can bet governments will turn to new roadbuilding, bridges, and all the stuff that worked in the LAST depression. That's my opinion. This book shows why that is nuts, and gives us the graphs, facts, and figures to call for a future transportation system that actually works.

I like the emphasis on conservation and renewables, instead of promoting nuclear as an answer. Good. But I wish the authors had a little more push on climate change, as a reason to use these same solutions. I ask that question, during the Q and A that followed.

This book is expensive. It is loaded with references, and all the gear that lets people answer to government experts, and industry lobby people. If you want to get active in any serious way, this is a reference book that is well worth it. It is published by Earthscan.

I predict people will use "Transportation Revolutions" for years. And yet the text isn't heavy going - it's clear and well written - an unexpected bonus these days, when it comes to authoritative books on any technical subject.

Anybody can read it, and should.

Ecoshock show 080328 1 hour CD Quality 56 MB or Lo-Fi 14 MB.

The web site for the book is here.

If you want to run just the feature on Transpo Revolutions, it is available as a separate file, complete and ready to run on radio, computer, or your IPOD, at 48 minutes long.

The CD Quality Transpo feature is 45 Megabytes. The Lo-Fi mono version is 11 MB. Or just look at the Climate Solutions page on our main website.

Alex
Radio Ecoshock

End of Age of Oil - Kunstler Part 2

How will we live as oil declines - and the price keeps going up?

In our previous program, we ran the first hour of a speech by James Howard Kunstler, given as the first visiting scholar to the Urban Studies Program at Simon Fraser University, in Canada.

Today, we present the conclusion of the speech followed by a moving question and answer period, uncut. The audience reacts with admiration, animosity, and tough questions for author Kunstler.

Hear what your neighbors think, their worries, suggestions - and the brilliant wit of Kunstler as he fields all questions.

Recorded 080124 by Ecoshock.

This is the Ecoshock Show for 080208 1 hour CD Quality 56 MB was podcast, (or listen by clicking the title above) but you can also get the Lo-Fi 14 MB mono version if downloading by telephone.

Production Notes: 30 second music bed for station ID at 31:25 Also: Clip from David Rovecs song "End of the Age of Oil"

Alex Smith
host
Radio Ecoshock
www.ecoshock.org

End of the Age of Oil - 1

James Howard Kunstler lecture as 1st visiting scholar to Simon Fraser Urban Studies 080124

From the Long Emergency to new measures after Peak Oil. The best speech of the year so far.

Why the housing boom will not return, and what that means to the American economy. The disaster of investing in suburbia, as oil becomes more and more expensive, and dangerous to get.

How Nationalization of most of the oil of the world (the major companies like Shell and Exxon only deliver about 5% now, Kunstler says) - means not only will oil run out - but the countries who control it (like the Emirates, Iran, Venezuela, and Russia) will (a) keep more for their own economies and (b) send it to their friends (which may not be America....)

A whole range of social issues, tackled head on, with verve, from one of America's most articulate writers and speakers. Kunstler is the author of "The Geography of Nowhere" and "The Long Emergency" plus many other fiction and non-fiction books. His newest, a fiction novel set in the near future, after oil has run out, is titled "World Made by Hand." That comes out in March of 2008.

Meanwhile, he has been appointed the first visiting scholar to the progressive school of urban design at Simon Fraser University, in British Columbia, Canada. This speech was one of two given for that program - and the conclusion plus the lively question and answer period will follow in the Radio Ecoshock program next week. Kunstler unsettled the audience, who responded with both admiration and antagonism. A sign of a good speaker.

Part 1 of 2.

Ecoshock show 080201 1 hour CD Quality 56 MB or Lo-Fi 14 MB