The Coming Climate Panic

Should we arrest our best climate scientists? The denier fringe is calling for investigations and criminal charges. On today's Radio Ecoshock Show you'll hear one of the world's top scientists answer those charges. I'll digest the best from a stunning speech by Professor Richard B. Alley, at the American Geophysical Union annual meeting in San Francisco, in December.

Here is the link to a video of that speech.

Scroll down for much more on Richard Alley's speech, including a link to transcripts of the clips from this week's radio show, and notes to help non-scientists grasp the important new science.

But first: Ten years ago, the tipping point was whether we could stop climate change. Now, after years of inaction, the answer is no. The next tipping point is likely in human affairs, namely, will we be able to govern ourselves? Will our civilization survive the coming climate panic?

The coming climate panic. That's title of a work that just ricocheted all over the blogosphere. Let's meet the author, Auden Schendler.

[Auden Schendler interview, radio only]

I appreciate Auden Schendler's bravery putting out an SOS about delaying action on climate change. I disagree that cap and trade will actually save the planet - it's got corruption and cheating built right in, in my opinion, and in the European experience. A carbon tax that flows through to the citizens, as proposed by Dr. James Hansen and others, has a chance of actually working.

And I can't agree that the individual doesn't matter in this fight. Auden still believes governments could solve this problem. Copenhagen, and the simple record of increasing emissions no matter what government is allegedly in charge say otherwise.

Sure we should push governments, but I've consistently said that you and I, the citizens are the front line in the fight against climate change. We can and must:

- lead by example, cutting our own carbon emissions by at least 40% this year, and pointing toward energy self sufficiency. And no cheating with phony carbon off-sets.

- start connecting and organizing locally. Fossil energy supplies are limited, and we can't burn what we have. A local economy is the only way to survive well, or survive at all. Pay special attention to your food supplies.

- prepare yourself for emergencies. There are tough unstable times ahead. Have at least several weeks of food and water on hand. Plus other supplies to keep warm and safe. And prepare to help others in emergencies - the latest flood, storm, fires, heat waves. It's not enough to keep yourself or even your family alive. Get ready to help lots of folks.

- either dedicate hours a day to fight for sustainable energy in your community, or figure out where to move. Pure coal power won't last a decade. Industry won't locate there. Eventually, consumers will demand labeling not just about the contents of products - but the amount of pollution used to produce it. If you buy low-fat soup, you'll but low-energy manufactured products.

- my last point, as an individual, is DO NOT count on big governments for much at all. At every level, governments in North America, England, some European countries, and more, are really bankrupt. The growth economy is sputtering out it's last. Then we have to go for a stable state economy, or massive reductions, until the climate is stable, and until a more just distribution of wealth is achieved.

In his blog this week, the dour James Howard Kunstler writes:

"Our destination is an everyday economy where you rarely travel far from the place you live, where you have to make provision for you own health, your own old age, your own income, your own diet, your own security, and your own education. If you're really fortunate, some or all of these necessities can be obtained in conjunction with your neighbors in the place where you live -- but don't expect an increasingly mythical federal government to supply any of it. Expect a new and different way of organizing households based on extended families and kinship groups. Be prepared for agriculture to return to the foreground of everyday life, where farming is back at the center of the economy. Think about how you will cultivate your best role in a social network so the things you do will be truly valued by the other people who know you."

Find that under "The Futile Economy" January 4th, 2010 at kunstler.com

This is Radio Ecoshock. I'm Alex Smith. Look, it's winter. There is snow. It's cold. I can't believe the number of idiots who cite that as proof of the coming ice age, much less a damnation of climate change science.

Check out Joe Romm's "Experts: Cold Snap Doesn't Disprove Global Warming."

If we are really that stupid, and some of us are! - all future climate conferences should be held in August. I believe the next one comes up in May 2010 in Germany?

Climate is measured over decades at best. Heaven help us if we have two real winters in a row! The masses may give in to the loudmouth deniers, going back to energy gluttony, while supplies last. Then we're doomed.

What the heck, let's get back to skiing. Joe Romm, the climate demi-God blogger at climateprogress.org has a feature on the future of skiing this week. Published on January 6th, 2010, it's titled "Can U.S. skiing be saved?"

In the blog, a guest writes:

"Take Aspen, for instance. The resort is already seeing a gradual increase in frost-free days and warmer nights, according to Mike Kaplan, CEO of Aspen Skiing Company, and aspen trees are dying off in large numbers. A study by the Aspen Global Change Institute forecasts that if global carbon emissions continue to rise, Aspen will warm by 14 degrees by the end of this century—giving it a feel similar to Amarillo, TX."

Ouch.

I started covering this story back in 2006, with a podcast called "Can Winter Sports Be Saved?" That mp3 got thousands of downloads, and still goes out by the hundreds every month. In it, I interviewed a rep from Whistler-Blackcomb, the super Canadian ski resort where the 2010 Olympic downhill events will be held in February. Not much has changed since that time, except emissions are worse, and the climate warmed faster. Let's give it a listen now.

[audio only]

That was an interview from one of my early Radio Ecoshock podcasts in 2006, still chilling today.

Find all our past programs and features, as free mp3 downloads, at our web site, ecoshock.org.


RICHARD B ALLEY - THE CARBON CONTROL KNOB

In the recent attacks on top scientists, let us take the case of Richard B. Alley. He is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences, at Penn State University. Alley is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union, and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. His popular book about ice cores is called "The Two Mile Time Machine."

Alley was expected to give one of the best speeches of the 2009 annual meeting of the AGU - and he did not disappoint. I'm going to give you a short digest of that hour-long Bjerknes Lecture to the AGU in San Francisco in December, with a transcript of the quotes.

Professor Alley begins with the attack:

"I said these were interesting times. This is a copy of an email that was sent to my administration [at Penn State] by an alum [alumni, former grad of Penn State], and said alum copied me on this, so I believe I am fair. The alum asks for certain personnel changes to be made, and I have just put in the ones that relate to me.

So for what it's worth, Dr. Alley's work on CO2 levels and ice cores - now I don't actually do that but I talk about it - OK Dr. Alley's work on CO2 levels and ice cores has confirmed that CO2 lags Earth's temperature. This one scientific fact alone proves that CO2 is not the cause of the recent warming.

I continue to mislead the scientific community. There should be prompt response (getting rid of me), I have "crimes against the scientific community, Penn State, the citizens of this great country and the citizens of the world" that "must be dealt with severely" because of my "shameful" activities."

[laughter from the audience][applause]

"So there'll be a wanted poster which will be up here somewhere, but the thing which is fascinating, and we'll come back to, is that this email has in it a logical fallacy which is evident on casual observation. And I think it's worth our understanding at some level, how polarized the world is, how easy it is for someone to misunderstand our science, if they aren't fully within it, the amount of education, the amount of outreach, the amount of clarification, that we have to make, to get from this to a proper scientific understanding."

In fact, the former Penn State grad calls for "an investigation into...Dr. Alley's activities [that] will... start prior to the end of this year."

Later in this program, we'll follow Professor Alley as he explains the denialist bugaboo of carbon dioxide lagging temperature rise in climate history. In excerpts from this important speech, we'll learn more about the scientific history of our planet, and it's atmosphere.

As we will learn, this was part of a concerted effort against climate scientists at Penn State, including the famous "hockey stick" graph creator, Michael Mann, and others.

The Bjerknes Lecture is one of the keynote speeches to the American Geophysical Union annual meeting each year. Named after a famous Arctic researcher, Professor Bjerknes - Penn State's Professor Richard B. Alley received the award, and gave his speech at the December 2009 meeting in San Francisco, for his work teaching the history of Earth's past climates.

The title of the speech was "The Biggest Control Knob, Carbon Dioxide in Earth's Climate History".

I have made a transcript of the excerpts used in today’s show – likely the only print version from the speech so far.

READ MORE

A CLIMATE OF CRASH AND CHOICE

Radio Ecoshock takes on the financial crash, funding for green jobs instead of banksters, and youth organizing to get green back in the elections.

We start with a brand new interview with independent journalist Mike Whitney. He's been writing searing articles (for the rest of us) at counterpunch.org - and many other online journals and blogs.

We talk about the latest grab and run with the money, as the same Wall Street experts who bankrupted the nation - call for even more money (for themselves). How big is the bubble - and how far can it fall? What the Hell does it all mean?? Mike and I thrash through the latest news, and the cross-currents threatening to break the bank. Maybe even your bank, despite the claims you are covered.

Think about it. When George Bush comes on TV promoting something, you know this ain't good.

Then we look at a different option. Two presenters at the U.S. Government's Select Committtee on Energy Independence and Global Warming show how America could build it's way into a safe energy future - and make lots of green jobs. That's from Bracken Hendricks and Robert Pollin, and you can download the Green Jobs testimony from the September 18th webcast, captured here.

In this show, I run just the first 4 minute introduction by Committee Chair Rep. Ed Markey of Massachusetts. Markey seems for real. He acknowledges the financial crisis, but says an investment of 100 billion dollars would bring not just a wealth of jobs and new industry (in America!) - but also cut the huge balance of payments deficit, as all your gas pump money runs out to semi-hostile states. Solar. Wind. Geothermal. Made and used in America, carbon free.
Good stuff.

OK, then we take a breather with the late great comedian George Carlin on elections. I agree the whole show is corrupt - but it DOES make a difference who gets in, and what promises we can wring out of them before we give our votes.

Especially for young people. Scientists warn that if we don't stop our greenhouse gases soon, the climate will be wrecked for the next generations. The good news is young people are organizing to green the vote in both the United States and Canada.

We start with our interview of Brianna Cayo Cotter, spokesperson for PowerVote.org It's an exciting initiative to get the environment back on the ticket, for both parties. Check out their website, sign up, get active.

From Canada, which is already dead into an election battle, we have a speech recorded at the press launch of powerupcanada.ca. A surprising number of big groups, from steelworkers to greens to older people, have signed on to an initiative to push all parties on climate action. Again, young people are joining this movement. Just a couple of weeks to go in Canada, let's not leave the climate another four years, with greenhouse gases belching (while white guys get rich....)

You'll hear famous forest activist Tzeporah Berman's short speech kicking off PowerUp Canada!

This program is also loaded with little clips, to relieve the pressure. We have to laugh or cry, so let's not forget to laugh a little. The weeping will come later (or sooner). Some of the fun election clips in this edition were sent along by our Colorado listener/producer who posted his own sardonic radio piece called "Systemic Failures: American Voting Primer 08" Grab that half hour piece here.

We also get into a scary email from a Russian research vessel off Siberia. A Swedish scientist has discovered fast moving pools of methane breaking out from the sea bed. Our worst nightmare. Other climate scientists advise caution, as the work hasn't been written up in a paper, or peer-reviewed yet - but it is a worry. Maybe instead of paying for the next "manned" space ship to Mars, we should explore our own planet. We need a fleet of research ships in the Arctic, to monitor greenhouse gas release there. Otherwise, a big belch of methane could create a major climate disruption in just a few years time. We need to know.

I got that story from Ross Gelbspan's useful site heatisonline.org Ross just posts the need-to-know stories.

It's a packed show.

Alex.

PEAK CLIMATE

A double-header, with two "don't miss it" interviews.

We start out with Dr. Peter Ward author of the revolutionary climate book "Under A Green Sky." Peter has just returned from an exploratory trip in Australia, and will head to Antarctica later this year.

Dr. Ward has summarized the newest science which shows that 4 out of the past 5 great extinctions were not caused by asteroid hits - but by wrenching and deadly climate change. The cause? Carbon dioxide belching out of volcanoes. But now we are the volcanoes - and the end result may be the same: out of control climate turbulence followed by the deafening silence of mass extinctions.

Dr. Ward tells us about the new TV series coming out on Animal Planet - called "Animal Armageddon". Peter is the chief scientists on that project, which hopes to bring the awful reality of climate change to television watchers.

Then we go for solutions. Julian Darley, author of "High Noon for Natural Gas" saw our energy crisis coming years ago. We are hitting Peak Oil - production can't go up, and will go down. You may have noticed this little problem at the pump. And in the storms hitting the Americas, and Asia.

Darley explains why he founded The Post Carbon Institute and gives us some tips on how to solve the energy crisis - without waiting for some miracle technology. We look at emerging solutions like relocalize.net - and his experiment with sharing commercial vehicles. Good stuff.

Music is "House of Trouble" by Clatter.

UK CLIMATE ACTION

Thousands gather in Britain's climate camp against coal; 3 protests, police over-reaction.

Is it "Green Stalinism" versus decentralized power? That is a recurring theme between those calling for big government action - and the anarchists who believe the government poisons everything it touches.

Quotes from George Monbiot, and music from the camp.

Plus a good interview on getting the public to accept alternative clean power. Will a windmill really blot out the landscape? Or is it better to accept climate change? How to overcome public resistance, and empower those who are ready to change.

The police seemed to think any public gathering was a good chance to practice mass anti-terrorist games. They raided the peaceful camp for no reason, and confiscated such dangerous items as crayons (from the kids) which could be used to make signs.

The media focused on the discovery of a set of kitchen knives, which proved deadly intent. Actually, it proved there were thousands of people on site to feed. Try slicing onions by hand.

The protest was to stop the construction of two new coal fired power plants at Kingsnorth (which is actually in the South East of Britain). After more or less closing down their coal industry, and lowering emissions with natural gas, the government of Gordon Brown is turning back the clock, to go back to coal. Never mind their own lofty greenhouse gas promises.

This regressive action threatens us all. How can anyone ask the Chinese to stop, when rich Britain, loaded with wind and tidal power options, decides to build more coal plants?

Even though a huge group of scientists in the UK have protested building new coal, and even though the protesters were merely asking for what the government promised - the entire police apparatus of the state was used against the generally middle-class and student protesters.

While the camp was going, with clean energy and food raising workshops, there were three protests: one against the Royal Bank of Scotland, which funds more dirty energy than anyone in the country; a very innovative campaign at Gatwick airport, trying to get holiday-goers to consider their climate impact; and the main attempt to get into the Kingsnorth site (where an old coal fired plant is still belching black into the sky).

All peaceful attempts, met generally with police violence. That is the only answer the state has, apparently, to people gathering to protect the climate. And the media focused on that, of course, rather than the issues. Headlines about knives, hardly anything about the ecosphere going down the crapper. Stupid humans.

The show is composed of clips broadcast live from the Climate Camp in early August - another useful demonstration of the new media. Don't like the old media? Do it yourself. A great work-together project by several UK community stations and radio activists.

All of this: North America (and Australia) - take notes! We don't have to sit around moaning about stupid coal plants being built. Let's get together and act! Britain leads the way.

Alex.

Radio live from Camp. Ecoshock Show 080822 1 hour CD quality 56 MB or Lo-Fi 14 MB

CHANGE OR BURN The Australian Experience

Ecoshock Show 080718

Speech by top climate/economic adviser to new Australian government, Prof. Ross Garnaut.

His report is an update of the famous Stern Report in the UK - with even better accounting for China and all Asia. Professor Garnaut was the Australian Ambassador to China, and knows places like Indonesia well. So his view is from a developed country, but knowing the huge growth and challenges happening in Asia - which may well tip the climate of the world.

I think Garnaut's report will likely be the basis for American action in 2009 - no matter who wins the Presidency. The world is watching (and listening). Since this speech, Garnaut has released his report.

Although he recommends various actions, including a carbon trading scheme, in public comments Garnaut has called the climate threat "diabolical". He has almost thrown up his hands, saying that special interests may prevent humanity from protecting the remains of the climate system. Rather radical for a former establishment figures - but Australia is deep in a killer drought which threatens one of the great agricultural production areas of the world. Their wheat exports are already down, adding to world hunger.

Australia voted for climate action - in this speech you hear the proposals and direction that many developed countries might take.

Then we dive into the "Clean Development" scam. Unscrupulous people have taken advantage of loop-holes in the United Nations system meant to reduce climate emissions. Their fake reductions, and investments in plants that would have been build anyway, takes billions out of real clean energy. I've included a clip from the BBC program "One Planet" where an Indian industrialist admits taking CDM money for projects already funded elsewhere. "Why not?" he asks, as the BBC records.

My point is not just that an enforcement plan is needed - but the whole idea we can continue to burn coal in the first world, and pay off someone far away for the pollution, is nuts. We need to stop producing greenhouse gases right here in the developed world, first, and now.

1 hour CD Quality 56 MB or Lo-Fi 14 MB

Production Notes: Good insert spots for ID at 29:30, and 43:19 to 44:03 No copyright music. Clip from BBC One Planet.

A WARNING FROM THE PAST

This week's Radio Ecoshock broadcast is about past greenhouse worlds, quick climate shifts, and mass extinctions caused by changes to the atmosphere.

Dr. Andrew Glikson studies comet/asteroid impacts, volcanoes, and past climates. He's been doing it for 40 years.

While studying the oldest record of life on Earth, in the Australian outback, Glikson found a relationship between comet or asteroid impacts and the generation of living things. We do not yet know whether life forms (such as bacteria) actually arrived from outer space - or whether the impact generated energy and unique chemical conditions that caused certain natural reactions to duplicate themselves.

All that is a side issue to this speech, which is an education on the dominating role of the atmosphere in determining the state of life on Earth. Whether caused by impacts or volcanoes, or even gradual tilts in the Earth axis, a changing atmosphere can make life luxurious - or kill off up to 90% of all species.

The science explained by Andrew Glikson in this speech find a parallel in the book "Under A Green Sky" by Peter Ward, a scientist in Washington State. We are talking, for example, about the Permian mass extinction, about 200 million years ago. The ocean lost it's oxygen, and life surived in only a few pockets of the ocean. Most land species were exterminated.

Of the five past great extinctions (we are apparently living in the 6th extinction now) - FOUR WERE CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE. Not hits from outer space. For the survival of our species, we need to know what happened - and few people alive know more than Andrew Glikson, as he summarizes not only his own research, but the general science now developing in the field.

This speech from Australia National University explains our current shift toward a hot-state planet - much faster than ever before. It has been slightly modified for radio, (to fit in an hour) with the permission of Dr. Glikson.

Learn about your planet (or die?)

The Radio Ecoshock Show 080704 1 hour CD Quality 56 MB or Lo-Fi 14 MB

Alex
Radio Ecoshock

TOP UK SCIENTIST'S BLUNT CLIMATE WARNING

Sir David King warns we are headed toward a hot-state planet, not seen since 55 million years ago (when life huddled on Antarctica).

The only way out, he says, is a binding international agreement by 2009. Even so, we only have a window of 5 years to act, to cut carbon drastically. Otherwise, the global climate may shift by 5 degrees C. ( 9 degrees Fahrenheit) or more. Keep in mind, that's the just the global average. The arctic may go up 14 degrees or more.

We are already experiencing massive fires, drought, and floods with a temperature increase of just a degree or so. Scientists think we have another degree and a half "in the pipeline" - already stored in the Sea, but not yet out in the world (there is a delay factor.)

Coming from a man who advises British Prime Minister Brown, and sets science goals for the United Kingdom - this is an extreme warning, from a renowned scientist, plugged into the latest satellite and other data.

Scary but true. We are heading into something that human history has never prepared us for. This is the big alarm bell.

It seems to me, that all new oil, gas, and coal projects should be stopped immediately. On a personal level, put your car up on blocks. Yes, it is that serious.

Listen for yourself, by clicking the title above, or going to:
www.ecoshock.org/downloads/climate_2007/ES_071109_DavidKing.mp3

This warning comes from a podcast interview by Robyn Williams, one of the best science journalists anywhere. The show is "Conversations," broadcast by ABC Radio National in Australia. Find out more at abc.net.au/rn

Also: check William's other show, ABC's flagship "Science Show". Some great interviews with James Lovelock, plus many more. Their podcast and on-demand listening page is:
www.abc.net.au/rn/podcast/default.htm