Black Carbon = Fast Warming = Early Death

If I feel a strain this week, it's not because of the volcano blowing planes out of the sky over Europe. Unless the larger Icelandic volcano nearby goes off, scientists say the dangerous ash will not really cool the planet much. It may damage our economy more in the short run.

But the biggest-ever suspension of air travel reduced carbon emissions for a few days, and taught a few people how to take a train, or use video-conferencing. Every cloud has a silver lining.

No, my worry is about this week's program. All I have is an interview with a top scientist, a recording of Congressional testimony, and a reading from James Hansen's latest book.

Sounds less exciting than a volcano, or Tiger's latest mistress expose...

But wait, what if I told you half of the recent ice melt in the Arctic was not caused by extra greenhouse heat? What if rivers running dry, and people dying by the millions, all came from the same cause?

Did you know there is fast-warming, and slow warming? That smog could be heating and hiding warming at the same time? So much, that we could experience a permanent burst of heat, taking us past the 2 degree safety mark, in just a matter of days?

Science can be way ahead of Hollywood when it comes to danger and mystery. Welcome to the Radio Ecoshock special on BLACK CARBON.

It is as evil as it sounds. Black carbon comes from incomplete combustion. It happens naturally from forest fires - although some of the great fires are not so natural. Warming has already shifted rainfall patterns and brought earlier dryness - from Australia to California to Greece and Africa.

A lot of black carbon comes from diesel engines - the highway trucks, public buses, construction equipment, generators and trains. These particles are too small to see. Photo blow ups reveal diesel carbon looking like tiny meteorites, with rough surfaces and pock-marks. Those surfaces get coated with pesticides and other toxic chemicals, making it directly past our body defenses, into our blood streams. You can find out more in my Radio Ecoshock special for April 25th, 2008 "Highway to Hell, How Smog Kills". Grab that free from our archives at ecoshock.org.

The short story is low-level smog greatly raises the number of heart attacks. As Dr. Joel Schwartz of Harvard reveals, patients die quickly in their homes, or on the streets, DOA before they reach the hospital. This happens all over the world.

But black carbon haze goes much higher than our office towers. It floats up into the atmosphere, browning out the Sun - over New England in the Summer, over the West Coast cities, over the whole of Pakistan and Northern India, over much of China. And, as we'll learn today, these dark particles absorb heat directly from the Sun, helping to overheat the world.

The haze also reduces the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth, reaching our crops, by as much as 10 percent. A huge loss of agricultural productivity.

Even when they land, most often collecting on mountains, and in the Arctic, black carbon speeds up melting of snow and ice. That change of Albedo adds to warming, and the abnormal run-off adds to both drought inland, and rising seas everywhere.

And strangest of all, we could probably fix the black carbon problem comparatively cheaply. But if we fix it quick, the climate could suddenly turn on us, heating up the world. Damned if we do, and damned if we don't. Welcome to the ironic universe.

I'm Alex Smith. Let's find out about black carbon, before it kills us.

READ MORE

including all the links you need plus...

* a quick summary of expert testimony on black carbon to the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, chaired by Representative Ed Markey.

* and clips of what the world's biggest coal companies told Congress about global warming.

Back to the Land!

Get back to where you once belonged. Get your hands dirty, with this week's grow-op on Radio Ecoshock.

We'll hear from the young farmers movement, with film maker and dirt farmer Severine von Tscharner Fleming of Greenhorn Radio. Community supported agriculture, organic, getting out, or grow where you are, feed the city, from the city.

Our second guest, Sharon Astyk, says we need a nation of farmers. As the oil and fertilizer get scarce, as climate disrupts the rivers and the crops, we all may need to know, how to feed yourself from the ground up. Places to start, ways to get going.

Radio Ecoshock digs in.

"Greenhorns" - it's an old term from the American West, meaning a beginner. And Severine is part of a movement of new farmers. Many have not come from farming families, and so they need to start from scratch.

Severine describes many ways to get started. She took courses at an agricultural college, while working each summer on an organic farm. The Severine went around the world "WOOFING" - Working (Willingly) On Organic Farms. It is possible to follow the crops, learn from many different farming techniques, and get "free" room and board, in return for your hard work.

Severine also decided she was an animal person. Some folks specialize in raising vegetables, others fruit and nut trees, but our guest felt most at home with animal husbandry. So Severine traveled to Switzerland, where some of the world's best small-scale dairies still operate. Learning to make cheeses in the old ways, and how to handle cows, in humane ways.

She also worked at Community Supported Agriculture (CSA's). This is an excellent way for beginning growers to get going. Expensive land can be a barrier to new farming. You'll need some capital to prepare and plant, and banks don't want to lend to greenhorns.

But CSA's can be set up on leased or rented land, or even, as we'll hear, on state or city owned land (where available). You get the end consumers, the "eaters", to pay for the coming crop up front. Then, as various crops come in, the customers get a box of the freshest organic food anywhere, every week.

There is another variation, for those with access to a producing orchard, where customers (usually in the city) pre-pay for the crop from a specific tree. When the fruit comes in, they often pick it themselves, getting bushels of fruit the day it ripens.

I expect, as the economy tightens (and it will), and as more unemployed people want good food, that governments everywhere will look for plots of land that could be used for local food production. CSA's could be the way to go - unless you have that lucky inheritance, or hard won savings, to buy your own property.

Either way, as Severine tells us, only 6 percent of farmers are under the age of 35 in America. The vast majority are around age 57, and want to retire soon. That is going to leave a huge gap in food production, and a possible loss of knowledge. And that is why the Greenhorns movement is finding new ways to support young people who want to get growing.

For example, when I was doing subsistence farming in Canada, I was lucky to find the very last of the old-time farmers still around. I went out to help them, herding in cows, or shoveling shit, which is honorable work on the land (especially if you get a pickup truck load of manure for your own big garden - that's gold!). But we didn't have a Wiki or contact with like-minded folks around the country.

Now the Greenhorns and many blogs provide that. You'll find a country growing knowledge Wiki at thegreenhorns.net - plus a lot of other resources.

And maybe keep your eyes out for collections of old Mother Earth News magazines, plus the Rodale publications.

SHARON ASTYK

What a great resource we find in Sharon Astyk. Here is a young woman who can grow things, explain matters well, stimulate new thought, and still admit life isn't perfect or easy.

I've followed Sharon's blogs (she has two) for over a year. There is her main growing blog (http://sharonastyk.com) and another at the science blogs collection (http://scienceblogs.com/casaubonsbook/).

Sharon, husband, and child moved to a country property in New England. She dug in with subsistence farming, starting from scratch. Eventually Sharon had a CSA feeding about 20 families, but then had to decide between having time to write, or having time to feed a lot of other folks.

We're lucky she chose to write, now with three books from New Society Publishers. There is the classic "Depletion and Abundance: Life on the New Home Front", "A Nation of Farmers, Defeating the Food Crisis on American Soil" (written with Aaron Newton), and now "Independence Days, A Guide to Sustainable Food Storage & Preservation".

All of them are tips on surviving with style, as you grown your own food and medicinal herbs.

We also talked about the relationship between city folks and those who go back to the land. Not everyone can just take off to try growing food. But everyone can help support community agriculture, buy only local organic food, and start growing right in the city.

When the oil was cut off to Cuba, the people of Havana started planting gardens everywhere. Eventually, the city largely supported its own need for produce.

Peak oil is upon us, and sooner or later oil and gas based fertilizers and pesticides will become very expensive, or hard to get. So it's past time to get cities into growing mode.

We should tell that to the dunces at the University of Victoria, in British Columbia, Canada. A group called "Food Not Lawns" dug in some raised beds at the lawn outside the university library. They planted good food and Permaculture shrubs. But the Administration had all that bull-dozed! Way to go, recognizing your students who know what is really happening! Way to support young people in their need to grow food! Idiots...

The students returned, replanted, and that was bull-dozed again. Now there is a fence around the site, with warnings to stay away. An institution firmly planted in the last century, holding on to lawns, not food.

But things are going much better in many parts of North America, Britain and elsewhere in Europe. Cities are re-evaluating their anti-growing attitudes.

Here in Vancouver, the local council has just passed a by-law making chicken-keeping legal in the city. You must have a little room for them, and no roosters please! Roosters keep everyone awake, and are not needed to get eggs. It's a progressive move, by a citizenry that are waking up to the need for local food production, and good farming practices.

Anyway, there is a lot for you to chew on in this Radio Ecoshock "Back to the Land!" special. I wouldn't trade my ten years growing for anything else on Earth. And some day, I'll get back to it.

Alex Smith
Radio Ecoshock

Bumper music credits:

Crow Black Chicken Ry Cooder, album Boomer's Story; Barnyard Dance Bill Hinkley and Judy Larson, album A Prairie Home Companion; Henry Hall & His Orchestra - The Teddy Bear's Picnic (1932); Songs from the Wood Jethro Tull, album: Songs From the Wood; "Back to the Land" (WWII Bedfordshire Women's Land Army) performed by Alison Young, accompanied by Kenneth Young, 2006.

The Unknown Climate

In the Spring of 2010, the East Coast of the United States was nearly drowned in an extreme precipitation event. Ditto parts of Australia, and Rio in Brazil. This is the other half of "global warming" - global wetting. Scientists have been warning about it for years - now it's happening. Can anyone say "Extreme Rainfall Events?"

Right afterwards, Eastern Canada went way above any temperature records, hitting summer beach weather, the eighties - 25 degrees C - in the first week of April. Still, hardly a single Network weather person mentioned "climate change". That's because a George Mason study shows that 67% of "weathercasters" believe that global warming is a natural event, and 27% think it's just a scam that isn't happening at all.

About half of those authoritative (but good looking!) faces on TV, telling us about the weather, have a degree in Meteorology. The other half just have the pretty or handsome face. Practically none have any scientific training in climate - but they talk like experts anyway. It's very damaging.

Our first guest says humans are very close to climate collapse. David W. Orr is a Distinguished Professor of Environmental Studies and Politics, at Oberlin College, in Ohio. He's been a pioneer in greening higher education. He advises many leaders and foundations. His latest book is "Down to the Wire: confronting climate collapse."

Gaia theorist James Lovelock has just given another disturbing interview to the BBC in London. Lovelock claims it's too late, we shouldn't waste our money on things like wind energy, but spend it all on adapting to the inevitable climate shift. How do you answer that?

Another worry proposed by Lovelock, is that climate change may not develop as a steady rise in either temperature or sea levels. It might happen as sudden jumps and reversals. He says previous climate records show a long-term heating can include intervals - perhaps decades or more - of cooling as well. Given all the global cooling nonsense from last winter's snowfall in the U.S., can any climate action plans can survive unsteady weather?

But Lovelock is making increasingly bizarre statements as well. Like this one: China is planning on moving it's population to Africa. Really? In this show I look into "Twelve Batty Things About James Lovelock".

I raised Lovelock's worries about irregular progression of climate change, partly because of another paper almost unknown to the general public. A theoretical ecologist at University of California Davis, Alan Hastings, says that climate tipping points may not be predictable at all. According to his work, there may be no signals or warnings, before a radical shift. For example, temperatures could go up rather suddenly, and stay there.

Hastings' paper didn't get much press, but it's quite important. As far as I can tell, Radio Ecoshock has the only original interview on the new paper from this distinguished scientist.

I'll send out a second blog entry, with more links for you to follow.

Enjoy,

Alex

Gimme Shelter - blog and links you need

How to make buildings that use 10% of current energy needs.

Here is a bonanza of links you want for this Radio Ecoshock special on Passivhaus and Net Zero construction, including two free workshops.

The full workshop by Guido Wimmers on Passivhaus, held at the Sustainable Building Center in Vancouver, is just over 80 minutes long. You can download the whole recording by Alex Smith of CFRO, here:

Part 1 49 min CD Quality 46 MB or Lo-Fi 11 MB; Part 2 CD Quality 39 MB or Lo-Fi 9 MB

Guido Wimmers Ecoshock interview from 100402 show, 21 min CD Quality 20 MB or Lo-Fi 5 MB

BUILDING SANITY An earlier one hour workshop on super-low energy houses, office & municipal buildings with Dr. Guido Wimmers. Over 12,000 already built in Europe. Reduce Fossil fuel consumption, bills & emissions (!) by 90%. Ecoshock Show 080613

A blog where you can see photos of Austria House, Canada’s first true Passivhaus building. (Takes a minute or two to load all the photos, be patient, wait before scrolling down…)

#2 Jamee DeSimone on Net Zero construction building in Ontario, Canada. Straw bale insulation, sustainable materials. Vancouver 100313 1 hour CD Quality 56 MB or Lo-Fi 14 MB

Tom Pittsley solar mass windows, video page. Tom’s web page.

Another you tube video on passivhaus, this time from
Nabih Tahan, a Berkeley architect, explaining the theory behind a "passive house".

Here is what this show is all about: (READ MORE)

Gimme Shelter

NOTE: A FULL BLOG WITH ALL THE LINKS WILL BE POSTED THURSDAY APRIL 1ST

Unless you are a farmer or one of the last rugged outdoors adventurers, 90 percent of your time on Earth is spent inside buildings. We are snails who don't know we are snails.

Naturally, we dream of the perfect home. That's a cheap day-dream. It's expensive to really do it. But the biggest cost, whether you build, buy, or rent - is the energy needed to run all these buildings. Eighty percent of the long-term cost of a building is energy use, not construction. And that is before peak oil and climate pressures really kick in.

Our electricity provider has already announced an increase of 25% over the next three years. Given the new oil demand from China, and more oil use by exporting countries, the cost of oil is just going to go up and up. Will it reach a point where you have to decide between heating or cooling your home or office, and eating? For some of our poorest citizens, that's already happening.

For you personal security in troubled times, and for national security, we need to slash the energy used in buildings. Did I mention that numerous studies show buildings contribute more than a third of carbon emissions to our overloaded atmosphere?

I'm Alex Smith. This Radio Ecoshock program is all about solutions. You will hear a prominent pioneer in the "Passivhaus" technique - buildings that use as little as 10 percent of the energy guzzled by our current structures. I'll interview architect Guido Wimmers, and tell you where to download two free passivhaus workshops. You'll get ideas that can revolutionize new building, and help guide renovations to existing ones.

We'll talk to another construction pioneer, Tom Pittsley. He's testing a super-low energy house in Massachusetts, where the windows grab solar power to heat the home, even in New England winters.

Then we'll listen in to another workshop, this time on a Net Zero building project in Ontario Canada. Jamee DeSimone explains how to use planet-friendly materials, including lots of straw, to make long-lasting energy misers. Again, you'll be able to download the full workshop, for free.

The building industry has been key to the economy in many countries. But many of the sky-scrapers and carbon-copy mansions won't survive Peak Oil and climate disruption. Already, as I explained in the Radio Ecoshock Show for June 6th, 2008, some of the old structures built during the cheap energy era are being torn down or retrofitted at a huge cost. I'll put a link to the program, called "Building Madness" in my April 1st blog for this show.

We can't afford to keep wasting massive amounts of energy, and we can't live in the future climate if we do. Join me, in this exploration of new ways to go, from the ground up.

Alex

Dark Optimism

You know we are going to run out of civilization's life-blood: fossil fuels. And if we burn what's left, the climate will tip into a mass extinction event. Meanwhile, barking madness seems to be the only growth industry. Is it time for more pills, booze, or end-time religion?

Our first guest says there may be some hope left. Shaun Chamberlin's blog is called "dark optimism" - and that may be as good as it gets. Shaun is part of the "transition movement" in Britain. He's the author of the new book "The Transition Timeline, for a local resilient future," ...and, part of an upcoming report for the British Parliament, on a scheme to give everyone an energy quota.

Read more, to get info and links on

1. getting your energy quota (TEQ’s)
2. the transition town movement around the world
3. new hope for renewable energy (from Lester Brown)
4. Americans expect collapse (Fox News trails Radio Ecoshock…)
5. student action to replace lawns with food plants at the University

Don't miss this one.

Alex

DOUBT IS OUR PRODUCT - the blog

NOTES AND LINKS FOR THIS WEEK'S SHOW:

Why do media run "scandals" about climate science? They get full page ads from car and oil companies, and they don't give a damn about our future. It's all in the latest ratings, the quarterly profit statements.

But why do we accept it? You know why... today, there's a good chance you got in your car, turned on a coal-fired light bulb, ate an agro-business meal. We want to believe we are not guilty of polluting the atmosphere.

Some people need to believe that so badly, they are ready to shoot the messengers. Literally. Our climate scientists.

And this anger (at unemployment, declining health care, degraded nature, who knows what all) - is developing from a cult of the few, into a mass movement. The madness of crowds, as we head into the greenhouse world.

That is what this Radio Ecoshock program is all about.

CLIVE HAMILTON

We go to Australia, to talk with Clive Hamilton. He's a Professor of Public Ethics, supported by Australian National University, and the University of Melbourne. Clive is lighting up the media, with a fantastic new series on climate denial. Plus his controversial new book "Requiem for a Species, Why We Resist the Truth About Climate Change."

His previous books include Affluenza, Growth Fetish, Scorcher, and Silencing Dissent.

I've been reading about harassment and death threats to climate scientists, most recently in an excellent 5 part series by Clive Hamilton. The most recent installment, published in Scientific American, has the sub-head "Researchers must purge e-mail in-boxes daily of threatening correspondence, simply part of the job of being a climate scientist."

Clive Hamilton is a Professor of Public Ethics, supported by Australian National University and the University of Melbourne. Previously, he founded and ran a progressive think tank called the Australia Institute.

His five part series includes:

February 22, 2010: Bullying, lies and the rise of right-wing climate denial
February 23rd: Who is orchestrating the cyber-bullying?
February 24th: Think tanks, oil money and black ops
February 25th: Manufacturing a scientific scandal
February 26th: Who's defending science?

- all published on the ABC National web site.

I wouldn't have believed the death threats and low blows, if I hadn't heard Stephen Schneider's own story. If I hadn't talked with other climate scientists who say the same.

As we heard from Clive Hamilton, the world's best climate scientists, and green activists, are under attack.
Now we'll hear directly from one of them.

STEPHEN SCHNEIDER

Stephen H. Schneider is Professor of Environmental Biology and Global Change at Stanford University. He's a Senior Fellow in the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. Schneider has advised the federal government during the Nixon, Carter, Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama administrations. He is one of America's pre-eminent climate scientists, one of the driving forces behind the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

We'll hear an exclusive interview with Stanford's famous climate scientist, Stephen H. Schneider. His latest book has been frozen out by major media. His teaching has been harried by attacks from climate deniers. Schneider talks candidly about death threats, and attempts by some in Congress to charge him as a criminal. Shades of Joe McCarthy, as humanity reacts to the bad news - with more madness.

The interview comes in a telephone conversation between Professor Schneider, and one of the few independent environmental journalists left on the planet - Stephen Leahy of IPS, independent press service. Dr. Schneider opens up with news of his alleged crimes against the nation.

[Schneider-Leahy interview]

That was Stanford's Stephen H. Schneider talking with Stephen Leahy. Find links to Schneider's web page in my Radio Ecoshock blog entry dated March 11th. And you'll find links to Stephen Leahy's IPS article "Violent Backlash Against Climate Scientists," as published on the Tierramérica network, hundreds of papers, on March 8th.

Canadian climate scientist and IPCC contributor Dr. Andrew Weaver told Leahy "'We're in a bizarre time, powered by greed and fear. The general public is more confused than ever,' 'And good scientists are saying to themselves, 'Why would I want to participate in the IPCC?'

The newspaper world is falling into bankruptcy, due to debt-laden mergers and acquisitions, competition from free information on the Internet, and a generational move from print to audio and video. Hordes of good reporters have lost their jobs - and would you believe it, newspapers tend to let environment reporters go first. Are they protecting their big-business advertisers? Of course not. It's just co-incidence.

You can help. Stephen Leahy may be the new model - a journalist who works directly for his or her readers. Stephen is off on a whirl-wind tour on three continents, covering conferences ranging from forestry to the oceans. He is your reporter - but Stephen needs help to keep going. Please visit his web page at stephenleahy.net, where you can "Adopt An Environmental Journalist" with a small donation by PayPal. Steve has two kids to feed, and we need to keep him going. Do it.

--------------

This is the last gasp of the fossil fuel age. The men who make billions every quarter, the longer they can stall, are buying whoever they can in the media, the blogosphere, and the houses of government.

And this is all tied into a long-standing conspiracy that goes deeper than mere money. It finds a home in Libertarians and ideologues who fear big government, or hate it.

A recent report by the Southern Poverty Law Center says disgruntled Americans are being whipped up by well-known media figures like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh. Somehow, in muddled minds, the science of climate change has been deftly attached to 911, unemployment, and the new extreme "patriot" groups. That report is called "Rage on the Right."

The militias, and the haters are back. They fly planes into the IRS, or attack the Pentagon single-handedly. Both Leahy and Schneider worry it's just a matter of time before a climate scientist is shot as well. I hope they are wrong - but just imagine the coming madness of crowds after a series of strange climatic events. After a heat wave kills thousands, after a mega-storm wipes out another city. After the crops fail, again. Our picture of society may fall off the wall, as anger takes over.

NANCY ORESKES: MERCHANTS OF DOUBT

We'll go now to a real conspiracy. Three scientists who frightened the world, who morphed from cold-warriors to anti-environmentalism. The founders of the current climate denialism. The institute they founded, named after World War Two warrior general George C. Marshall - took tobacco money, and then oil money, to stop government action, to endanger millions of lives, and future generations.

We'll get the story from the author of a new book "Merchants Of Doubt, How a Handful of Scientists Obscure the Truth About Climate Change". Naomi Oreskes is Professor of History and Science Studies at the University of California San Diego. She spoke at the University of Rhode Island, on March 2nd, 2010.

You'll hear 15 minutes from that speech. Find the whole thing on the climate 2010 page or our web site, ecoshock.org.

1 hour speech as mp3, CD Quality 56 MB (recommended, only mediocre audio quality)

Or Lo-Fi 14 MB(for telephone or slow download locations).

[Oreskes clip]

That was Naomi Oreskes, on a tour for her new book "Merchants Of Doubt, How a Handful of Scientists Obscure the Truth About Climate Change". The recording comes from the Vetlesen Lecture series, at the University of Rhode Island, March 2nd, 2010.

I remember battling Frederick Seitz back in the early 1990's, on a whole series of environmental fronts. If there was an evil chemical needing regulation, something killing off people or the biosphere, Seitz and his industry backers were against taking any action.

Now the three old men have finally almost faded off the horizon, but their George C. Marshall Institute was taken over by the American Petroleum lobby. The web site exxonsecrets.org lists grants by the Exxon Mobil oil company to the Marshall Institute totaling $840,000 since 1998. The Institute funded and published a who's who of climate deniers, including the late Sallie Baliunas, Frederick Seitz, Patrick Michaels, Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, and Richard Lindzen. The tiny crowd who continue to mislead the public about climate science, while whipping up anti-government feelings.

According to Wiki, the executive director of the George Marshall Institute helped develop the doubter's strategy for the American Petroleum Institute. Wiki continues, quote:

"The institute's CEO William O'Keefe, formerly an executive at the American Petroleum Institute and chairman of the Global Climate Coalition, is a registered lobbyist for Exxon Mobil."

So there is the real conspiracy - not by climate scientists to take over the world -but by industry hacks and cold warrior ideologues - to keep us upset and stupid, while the world burns. Beware the doubters and deniers.

But that was history. Now, in 2010, the anti-science belief system sprouted by three American scientists, has grown into a cult for now, and threatens to become a popular movement.

Nature - and physics - don't care what you believe. What is coming will come.

I'm Alex Smith. As always, I appreciate you taking time to listen to Radio Ecoshock. Write me any time, radio at ecoshock.org.

Opening music from Thamnos. Great new duo from Germany and England. Green aware. Check out their sample audio and video.

Songs: In the Year 2525, two versions: the original #1 hit from 1969 by Zager & Evans, album Exordium & Terminus, RCA End version from Venice Beat, featuring Tess Timony, released 2005.

EXPECTING COLLAPSE

Collapse is the new in thing. Columnists in collapsing newspapers write about it. Historians tell us it's coming. Prominent economists predict it. We all expect it.

What is collapse? Definitions vary from uncontrollable downturns, all the way to great culls in our population.

Lets start gently, with mild-mannered professor Dennis Meadows, one of the original authors to "The Limits to Growth". Here is a clip from a film prepared September 2009 for leaders and billionaires at Davos, Switzerland:

"The Danger of Collapse

Technically speaking "collapse" is a process where things go down, out of control. For example, if a building collapses, it falls down not under the control of anybody. Societal collapse is for the key indicators of our society--material standards of living, peace, trust in the government, and other things, to fall, without control.

Collapse is Near

The situation for us is kind of like living in a city which has earthquakes, let's say Tokyo or San Francisco. I can tell my friend in San Francisco that with 100% probability there is going to be another really big earthquake in San Francisco-absolutely, no uncertainty about it. But when, that is the question. And how big? These are really important questions. We don't have any idea when. It could be tomorrow; it could be thirty years from now. The same thing with collapse. I know that the current growth in population and in material use cannot continue--absolutely, with 100% probability, that it is going to stop. When? How? How seriously? We have no scientific way to make predictions."

[end of Meadows transcript]

Fine. It's like a building in Chile, if you expect it and prepare for collapse, or a concrete pancake in Haiti, if you don't. Next week we'll look at a more dangerous definition of collapse.

In this program, we'll hear two of the most prominent voices. Dumb media calls them "collapsniks". I have much more respect. Dmitry Orlov keeps piercing the veil with his insights, gained partly from his bridging the gap between the former Soviet Union, and the increasingly dysfunctional United States.

John Michael Greer has moved from the edge of mysticism, into a thought leader for alternative culture. You won't find either one on your father's radio stations. This is Radio Ecoshock.

[Dmitry Orlov interview, 25 minutes, available separately as an mp3 on our Peak Oil page]

Many people take their lead on collapse from the work of Joseph Tainter, the Head of the Department of Environment and Society at Utah State University. His book "The Collapse of Complex Societies" was published in 1988. Tainter looks at past civilizations, from the Maya to the Romans, to see they fell down. To quote from Wikipedia:

"Tainter argues that societies collapse when their investments in social complexity reach a point of diminishing marginal returns. He recognizes collapse when a society rapidly sheds a significant portion of its complexity."

Let's hear a short clip from Joseph Tainter, found at archeologychannel.org

[Tainter reading]

"Modern society, doom-sayers tell us, may be destroyed by pollution, over-population, global warming, energy shortages, or collision with an asteroid.

Economists argue the opposite: that as long as we remain entrepreneurial, we can overcome all challenges. Most of us hope the economists are right, but wish we could understand better why societies succeed or fail.

Societies regularly face wars, catastrophes, changes in climate, and economic distress. We respond to problems today much as people did before, and from these commonalities we can learn about collapse, resiliency and sustainability.

An illuminating collapse was that of the Western Roman Empire in the Fifth century A.D. The Romans found conquest highly profitable at first, as they seized the accumulated wealth of the Mediterranean lands. But for a one-time infusion of wealth, Rome took on responsibilities to administer and defend the empire. These responsibilities lasted centuries, and had to be paid from yearly agricultural production.

When there were extraordinary expenses, usually during wars, the government often found itself short of money. The usual strategy was to stretch the currency by adding copper. This was inflationary, and by the middle of the Third century A.D., the empire was bankrupt. The government would not even accept its own coins for payment of taxes.

In the half century from 235 to 284, the empire nearly came to an end. There were foreign and civil wars, almost without interruption. Cities were sacked and provinces devastated. In the late Third and early Fourth centuries A.D., the emperors Diocletian and Constantine responded by designing a government that was larger, more complex, more highly organized, and much more costly. They doubled the size of the army at great expense. To pay for this, peasants were taxed so heavily that they abandoned lands and could not replenish the population.

In the late Fourth century, the Barbarians forced their way into the Western empire. They overthrew the last Emperor in Italy in 476 A.D.

I call this 'the Roman model' of problem solving. The Romans responded to challenges by increasing the size and complexity of their government and army, at great expense. Fiscal weakness, and exploitation of the population undermined the effort, and made collapse inevitable.

The Eastern Roman Empire survived the Fifth century crisis. We know it today as the Byzantine Empire. It was constantly at war, and in the early Seventh century, a twenty six year war with Persia left both sides exhausted. Arab armies seized the wealthiest parts of the Byzantine realm, and destroyed the Persian Empire entirely.

Soon the Arabs were attacking Constantinople itself, the Byzantine capital. Yet the Byzantines made a remarkable recovery. They settled their professional army of farmlands across the Empire. Soldiers now provided most of their own sustenance, and the government paid them a much lower salary.

Byzantine government and society simplified also. Cities contracted to fortified hill-tops. The economy became organized around self-sufficient manors. Literacy declined.

The simplification rejuvenated Byzantium, which not only halted the Arab advance, but eventually doubled the size of the Empire. Unlike the Romans, who met challenges by increasing the complexity and costliness, the Byzantines show us what may be history's only example of a large complex society systematically simplifying. I label this 'the Byzantine model.'"

[end quote from Professor Joseph Tainter, University of Utah.]

Personally, I find Tainter's explanations a bit too business-oriented, a little too convenient for slashing employees and government help. And our understanding of collapse has come a long way from 1988, when his seminal book came out, I'm sure he would agree. Now that we're closer to it, some of the dirt has been wiped off the lens. But Joseph Tainter continues to be a great source for those interested in collapse.

When Radio Ecoshock continues, we'll go further, with the Arch druid, John Michael Greer. Stay tuned, while you can.

[interview with John Michael Greer, available as a separate interview on our Peak Oil page]

In 2005, John Michael Greer published a scholarly paper titled "How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse."

Greer finds Tainter's explanations lack some positive feed-back loops, the self-reinforcing drivers of decline emerging from things like limited resources, and failing biosphere. In the later stages of a civilization, most of the capital is converted into waste. Can anyone spell junk bonds or credit default swaps?

There has certainly been a downturn in media expectations. After the year of green shoots and drum beats of recovery, there are a slew of experts gently warning we're still in the crapper. You may feel a little pain.

From the OECD economists, to J.P. Morgan, capital experts see another slide coming. Investigations into Goldman Sachs' padding the books of entire nations, like Greece, Italy and more... are leaking out the awful truth. We fixed nothing in the banking system or our economy, and we've faked our way through another year.

Recalling the models from history, as presented by Joseph Tainter, we find that collapse isn't all bad for everyone. For those toiling under the yoke of impossible imperialism, it is a relief when the war economy ends. For those eating industrial agro-garbage, real grown food tastes sweet and good again. The cynicism of our present failures morphs into new beliefs, as the old is cleaned away.

The wild Germans and Celts longed for the Fall of Rome, though they kept using some of their technologies and symbols. In Byzantium, simplification and self-sufficiency led to centuries more civilization.

I'm also reminded of Roberto Vacca's 1973 book, "The Coming Dark Age". As a computer architect, Vacca predicted modern complexity would over-reach, and fall apart. The dreaded system break down.

A version of that book, updated by the author in the year 2000, is now free on the Net.

Back in the '70's, Vacca couldn't foresee how much computers would help humans organize beyond their individual capabilities. Once we survived the urge for atomic self-annihilation, we got another thirty years out of computer assisted living. Until Windows and the mega-servers hit the virus they can't swallow. Or the power goes out in a mega storm. Richard Heinberg warns most or our ready-to-click knowledge could disappear in a day, without the machines.

Meanwhile, you can feed your worries with the new article coming out this week in the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs. The Harvard historian Niall Ferguson calls it, "Complexity and Collapse: Empires on the Edge of Chaos." See what I mean? Everybody's on to it.

Find an accessible, shorter version of Niall Ferguson's warning here in the L.A. Times, the article titled: "America, the Fragile Empire."

We don't know where collapse is taking us, or when. Only that it's coming. Get more in next week's Radio Ecoshock on-going coverage. As Niall Ferguson writes, we may not have time to figure out the theory, if collapse comes quickly, and without warning.

I'm Alex Smith. Find lots more free audio, at our web site, ecoshock.org Thank you for listening.

Program Notes:
Our background music is "Open Up You Eyes" by Awake. The band dedicated another song, "Industrial Cemeteries" to our guest, John Michael Greer. The album is "Dark Matter".

You also heard the bull-horn overlay from London, England found in this You tube montage titled "Everything Is OK"

ON THE ROAD TO MASS EXTINCTION

Are we on the road to mass extinction? More scientists, from different fields of study, say that is possible, as we pollute the atmosphere and oceans.

We'll explore that - the worst case scenario - in this edition of Radio Ecoshock.

I'm going to dedicate this program to one such scientist, Dr. Andrew Glikson, an Earth and Paleoclimate specialist, from Australian National University.

We featured Andrew Glikson in our Radio Ecoshock show, May 1st, 2009. You can download that free from our web site, ecoshock.org.

We'll also interview a top scientist from Yale, Dr. Mark Pagani. His recently released study shows a hot greenhouse world, just 5 million years ago, with CO2 levels similar to those we have already put into the atmosphere. We'll talk about what the IPCC may have missed.

And we'll keep coming back to the mother of all climate nightmares: the dying oceans, which could wipe out most land species as well. Including us. You'll hear clips from an important speech, "Brave New Oceans" by Jeremy Jackson, Scripps Professor of Oceanography. He too warns we are heading toward a mass extinction event. And Jackson is far from alone.

But first, we'll start with a drop of good news: Bill Gates, the world's richest man, has finally discovered dangerous climate change. Here is how Gates began his speech to TED, the Technology, Entertainment and Design series, on February 12th, 2010.

READ MORE (with links to more audio, video and references)

Hot Climate Activism

A different twist on Ecoshock this week. We go radio active.

While major media goes into denial hyper-spin, the public and greens are making a difference.

You'll hear about the victories over insane expansion of coal-fired power plants in the United States. It's grass-roots, it's bigger than the anti-nuclear movement of the 70's, and it's grossly under-reported. Author Ted Nace explains the high-tech tools and old-fashioned grit that stopped the construction of at least 90 more coal plants in America. That's good news for the climate, and hope for us all. His coal activist Wiki is here.

Then we'll get a sneak preview from journalist and military specialist Gwynne Dyer. The military and politicians know climate is shifting much faster than anyone expected. Why haven't they told the public the truth?

Dr. Gwynne Dyer has a degree in military and Middle Eastern history. He's served in three navies, and advised military colleges from Sandhurst to Oxford. Dyer is also a famous war journalist, who lately dove into climate change, with a book and 3 part radio series called "Climate Wars."

Our speech clips were recorded at a presentation by Vancouver Community College Arts and Science, February 2nd, 2010. After interviewing many scientists, top politicians and generals, Dyer's first conclusion is chilling. Climate change is moving much faster than the public has been told.

Why did all the countries of the world suddenly agree to a two degree limit on warming? Because that's the point at which the climate spins out of any human control. Dyer explains it all.

In our second half hour, we get an update on climate campaigning around the world. Gavin Edwards, the departing Climate Campaign Director for Greenpeace International, tell us about climate action in Asia. And the response after the Copenhagen conference failure.

In breaking news, Gavin Edwards told me he's taking a sabbatical to work on his Masters, while still advising Greenpeace campaigns. Meanwhile, the climate campaign will be directed by Stephan Brockman and, in a surprise return to Greenpeace, Tzeporah Berman. Tzeporah was the famous face of the Clayoquot and Great Bear Rain Forest campaigns, founder of both ForestEthics and Power Up Canada. She will work out of Amsterdam for up to two years.

And that's it for Radio Ecoshock this week.

I'm Alex - thanks for listening. And tune in next week, as we confront the horrible, and fight off our impossible future.

Buying Into A Dying World

FST746RWSN87

Attics, basements, and garages are loaded with the plunder of past shopping. Some people rent storage lockers just to hold all their extra stuff. Dumps are filling up with brand new items, never used, but tossed out. There's even a TV show called "Hoarders" - a reflection of the national preoccupation. Do all these THINGS really make us happier?

In this Radio Ecoshock program, we examine the two extremes of consumption: the Americans who use up more of the world's resources than any other people; and the slum dwellers who use practically nothing.

The World Watch Institute has released it's annual report. "State of the World 2010, Transforming Cultures: From Consumerism to Sustainability" is 262 pages of solutions from around the world. You can buy it from worldwatch.org for $19.95 as a paperback, or $9.95 as a downloadable ".pdf" file (requires the free Adobe Reader).

I interview the project director, Erik Assadourian. We start by noting the total disconnect between governments and economists encouraging consumers to get out and buy to save the economy - versus the plain facts that resources are getting harder to find, the forests and land are being devastated, and the atmosphere is damaged by all the useless spending.

Why do we do it? We were raised to shop. Kids grow up with millions, if not billions of ads everywhere we look. Why do we wear corporate logos on our clothes, like walking billboards? Why do we need walk-in cupboards, multiple shoe racks, garages full of big-boy toys seldom used?

Rush Limbaugh nearly had a heart attack when the sacred advertisers were threatened by this rather brave World Watch report. It didn't help when the British Guardian newspaper came out with the headline "US cult of greed is now a global environmental threat, report warns."

The sub-head was "Excessive consumption has spread to developing countries and could wipe out efforts to slow climate change, Worldwatch Institute says."

Assadourian replied, saying the report wasn't trying to blame Americans - who were simply indoctrinated into a culture developed since World War II. The answer isn't blame, but a willing shift, a transformation to a survivable way of life.

Here is the Earthscan blog entry where Assadourian (sort of) agrees with Rush.

In our Radio interview, Erik and I discuss a little of the psychology, and the horrible statistics. But we spend longer looking at key institutions that could help us move away from shop-till-the-planet-drops lifestyles.

These include the greening of world religions, early childhood education (keep those toddlers away from TV!), the way Universities groom us to accept corporate symbols as self expression, the role of media, and so on.

But Worldwatch goes further, with chapters on things like converting agriculture to Permaculture (with Albert Bates), and a lot of other good ideas from all over.

Counter-consumerism hasn't exactly caught on, but there are some examples we can try. Of course, our previous week's guest Keith Farnish says this is all window-dressing for a civilization that has to collapse to save the biosphere. You decide.

Incidentally, Keith's blog entry for February 9th is titled "Monthly Undermining Task, February 2010: Time To Break The Ads." Whether is straight sales, or "green" products, Farnish says it's time to end advertising, before it ends us.

IS IT THEM, OR IS IT US?

Then we look at the other part of the world, the 3 billion people who create hardly any carbon emissions. Most of them live in "illegal settlements", with no government services, no police, no fire, no hospitals, no schools, and little hope.

Except, as our next guest David Satterthwaite tells us, the so-called "slum dwellers" are self-organizing to improve their lot, in many parts of the world.

Dr David Satterthwaite is a senior urban planner for the International Institute for Environment and Development, a non-profit based in the UK. He's traveled to the poorest parts of cities all over the world. He's the editor of the Earthscan Reader in Sustainable Cities, and co-author of many other books, including "Adapting Cities to Climate Change: Understanding and Addressing the Development Challenges."

Satterthwaite has also researched the role of consumerism, in the developed versus developing world. If you were wondering, when it comes to climate change is it "them" (increasing population in the "Third World") or is it "us" (Western-style consumers) - the verdict is in: it us!

Here is a link to a press release from the IIED "Study shatters myth that population growth is a major driver of climate change."

Here are a few factoids from that press release:

"Dr David Satterthwaite of the International Institute for Environment and Development analyzed changes in population and in greenhouse gas emissions for all the world’s countries and found that between 1980 and 2005:

* Sub-Saharan Africa had 18.5% of the world’s population growth and just 2.4% of the growth in carbon dioxide emissions

* The United States had 3.4% of the world’s population growth and 12.6% of the growth in carbon dioxide emissions

* China had 15.3% of the world’s population growth and 44.5% of the growth in carbon dioxide emissions. Population growth rates in China have come down very rapidly – but greenhouse gas emissions have increased very rapidly

* Low-income nations had 52.1% of the world’s population growth and 12.8% of the growth in carbon dioxide emissions

* High-income nations had 7% of the world’s population growth and 29% of the growth in carbon dioxide emissions.

* Most of the nations with the highest population growth rates had low growth rates for carbon dioxide emissions while many of the nations with the lowest population growth rates had high growth rates for carbon dioxide emissions."

Asked about the human failure (so far) to tackle either carbon emissions or urban poverty, Satterthwaite said we have a duty to keep on trying, even when facing apparently hopeless situations. I agree.

WHY ARE GREENS AFRAID TO TACKLE POPULATION?

Almost every question and answer period I record, on climate change, has at least on guy (and it's always a man) who stands up and says (somewhat angrily):

"Why don't the Greens every tackle population growth. That's what is causing climate change. Why are the enviro's always afraid to tackle the real cause of it all?"

Well, angry guy, now you know. That's just a slick denial in the West, to avoid taking responsibility for our own role. Blame the brown person on the other side of the world for our climate-wrecking, planet-draining need to shop.

Or check out this column by the UK journalist George Monbiot, titled "Stop blaming the poor. It's the wally yachters who are burning the planet."

It's the rich bastards that do the most damage, with those multiple monster houses, big SUV's, flying around the world. What about limiting the rich? There's a campaign you won't find in mass media - even if it has to happen.

Alex Smith

FST746RWSN87

Toward the Collapse

Is global warming unstoppable now? Could we be saved by total economic collapse? If so, should we help civilization fall?

It's another cheery edition of Radio Ecoshock, with your darkness at the end of the tunnel, Alex Smith. There are lots of links to our program content below.

Last night I recorded another glimpse of the climate apocalypse, with the author of "Climate Wars" Gwynne Dyer. He outlined the short distance from here to the cliff where long-known natural feed-backs leading to runaway global warming begin, and continue on for millennia. That limit is known as two degrees. Beyond that, great forests melt into fire, liberating their carbon. Beyond that, the Arctic permafrost melts, likely doubling atmospheric greenhouse gases. Five to seven degrees Centigrade of average global temperature rise. Utter disaster.

Dyer says world governments quickly agreed to the 2 degree limit at Copenhagen, without telling the public why. No need to panic the herd.

Dyer says we won't make it in time, before the big climate switch is pulled. You'll hear clips from that speech in an upcoming Ecoshock Show. I can't run the whole speech, because as usual, Gwynne is developing his new work toward another radio or TV program. I appreciate Gwynne sharing his "working notes" with our Radio Ecoshock audience. Kind of a sneak preview.

Find out more at www.gwynnedyer.com
Here is info on the "Climate Wars" radio series.

... and the book.

Up early this morning, I tune into a climate science web cast from the Center for American Progress. Two top American IPCC scientists, trying not to say too much. Late in this program, I'll have a few clips and comments from that update, hosted by Joe Romm, of the blog climateprogess.org.

But we'll start out with a different sort of scientist. Cloud specialist Tim Garrett stepped in a few people's faces, when he proposed a formula about carbon and the world's wealth. Simply put, unless our economy collapses, to levels you and I would hate, climate change is unstoppable. Garrett bases his jarring statements on a basic law of physics, of thermodynamics.

Read the "Is Global Warming Unstoppable?" article here.

You won't need a science degree to understand our Radio Ecoshock interview.

Following Garrett, we dive deeper into the culture of despair. Keith Farnish is the author of "Time's Up, an uncivilized solution to a global crisis." I've put lots of Keith Farnish links below, including one to his online book.

Are you ready to become uncivilized?

If collapse is the best solution, would you help kick the system over? Or would you just watch it fall? Farnish has been called a terrorist, and a green realist. Your brain exercise for troubling times.

Let's start with the science of collapse.

[Garrett interview]

This is Radio Ecoshock, with Alex Smith. We've just heard Tim Garrett from the University of Utah - and let's take a quick review.

His paper is titled "Are there basic physical constraints on future
anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?"

The basic thesis, tested against past industrial development, is that neither population nor standard of living have to be included in modeling prediction of climate change. Garrett concludes that civilization, as measured by gross domestic product, is directly related to the amount of carbon burned. More emissions, more wealth. Less emissions, less economic production.

Here is the exact description of the theory, from an abstract of Garrett's paper:

"Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically,
the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production—or p × g—through a time-independent factor of 9.7 ± 0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar."

By applying his formula, Garrett says it would take a new nuclear plant built every single day to keep up our current standard of living. As that isn't happening, and may be impossible, the only other solution is economic collapse. In our interview, Garrett suggests a horrible economic crash, which I imagine as diving perhaps to Medieval standards of life, is required just to reach 450 parts per million of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

In the conclusion of that paper we find, quote:

Viewed from this perspective, civilization evolves in a spontaneous feedback loop maintained only by energy consumption and incorporation of environmental matter.

Because the current state of the system, by nature, is tied to its unchangeable past, it looks unlikely that there will be any substantial near-term departure from recently observed acceleration in CO2 emission rates. For predictions over the longer term, however, what is required is thermodynamically based models for how rates of carbonization and energy efficiency evolve. To this end, these rates are almost certainly constrained by the size and availability of environmental resource
reservoirs."

end quote.

Several science journalists picked up on the paper's underlying prediction: global warming is unstoppable, unless the economic system crashes. And that leads to our next guest. He agrees, and suggests it is our duty, all of us, to help the inevitable hard landing come sooner, rather than later. Why wait until Nature is totally used up, on a nearly dead planet?

[Keith Farnish]

Here are a bunch of links for Keith Farnish:

His blog. earth-blog.bravejournal.com
Another blog ("unsuitablog")
Keith's book "Time's Up" (online version) www.timesupbook.com
========

Web casts are proliferating, as various publishers and institutes slash travel costs. That's good for emissions, and a way to let more people into the virtual room. I attended two this week.

One was a re-assessment of Copenhagen, and the way forward, from the British publisher Earthscan.

There I met David Satterthwaite, our radio guest next week. His recent work on the realities of human settlement, slums, and western consumerism - fits in perfectly with the new Worldwatch 2010 State of the World Report. I interview that report's project director, Erik Assadourian, as we ask "Is it them, or is it us?" Next week, on Radio Ecoshock.

My second web cast was provided by the Center for American Progress, and hosted by uber-blogger Joe Romm. His spot climateprogress.org really is the indispensable climate blog, as author and New York Times columnist Tom Friedman called it.

On the web cast, we got to hear from two top American scientists, who have helped organize IPCC reports: Dr. Michael MacCracken and Dr. Christopher Field. Dr. MacCracken has been a Radio Ecoshock guest.

I'm not going to lie to you. At time the web cast was timid to boring, as the two scientists were so careful about the limits of the IPCC process. You had to re-interpret wonk speak, to realize this Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is not really up to the task of warning the world about the real threat.

Why not? Let me count just a few reasons.

One: the whole pile of summaries, the things you, and I, and politicians actually read, must be agreed to, line-by-line, by each and every government in the world. That means, for example, Saudi Arabia, the giant oil producer who denies climate change, has to sign on. It's almost like having Dick Cheney approve everything the Obama administration does. Oh wait, it seems like that's happening in the Senate anyway.

Two: when incompetence, and possibly corruption in the case of grand-leader Pachauri show up, the IPCC has no agency to investigate, to correct the problem, or even to handle the press. Pachauri was involved with the unscientific and botched prediction about the Himalayan glaciers melting by 2030 - now shown to be contrary to the common knowledge of most glacier experts. A member of the team acknowledged they knew the information to be false.

Yet Pachauri helped get that wrong prediction into the report, and then personally profited from the panic by the Indian government. His company got fairly big money to find out more, about a problem with did not exist at the levels claimed.

It stinks of corruption, not a new idea at the United Nations. I've posted a list of Pachauri 's various businesses, and it's a long list, in my blog for this week. He should resign.

Here is an article which claims a direct conflict of interest for Dr. Pachauri , when it comes to carbon trading.

The same blog goes into detail about Pachauri 's business holdings and roles. It doesn't look good.

And let's not forget that Pachauri is essentially President George W. Bush's man. Bush objected to Robert Watson heading the IPCC, and pushed for Pachauri instead. Another very bad sign.

None of this was mentioned by the upright scientists at the American Progress web cast. They admit a major mistake was made, but don't criticize either the man, or the system that let him get away with it. Pitiful.

Three: there are a lot of things that science simply can't address, that matter a lot. For example, when the assembled scientists realized they didn't know how to predict Arctic ice melt, they just left that out of the calculations of sea level rise. So their prediction of a few millimeters rise by 2100 was laughable.

There's a lot more unknown unknowns, including public panic, climate wars, and climate trauma, and mass migration, just to name a few. Those demons are outside the realm of science, but definitely part of what we need to understand, or at least plan out with the best guesses.

Four: the IPCC is always 5 years behind current science. And why do we only report every five years, on a problem that suggests we only have ten years left to act, if that, before Nature takes over control of the greenhouse? We need a permanent climate war room, or rather a peace room.

Five: experience with past reports shows, the IPCC always underestimates both the urgency, and the severity of the impacts of climate disruption.

I run a couple of the best clips from the web cast, which you can see in full here.

In our first radio clip, Dr. Christopher Field echoes, almost exactly, the theory we heard in our first interview, with Tim Garrett. Carbon equals wealth.

Then Field adds to a list of climate change impacts, already begun by Michael MacCracken.

And finally, Dr. Michael MacCracken expands on everyone's nightmare, melting permafrost.

Still, it was a worthwhile web cast by the Center for American Progress, February 2nd, 2020. My thanks to Joe Romm, super-climate blogger at climateprogress.org, for at least trying to keep it lively.

Most of the talk about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, was diplomatic - and disappointing.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and in fact the whole U.N. system for negotiations, isn't working. If anything, it's working against us.

Frankly, we need a new public body to measure and predict the climate threat in real time. Let scientists say what they can prove, without censorship from Saudi Arabia, George Bush, or whoever. Maybe it can all be built as a knowledge machine on the Internet. Heaven knows who will fund and control it. Maybe some billionaire will care enough about the future to fund it, and let it go, without strings. Maybe we can find a few honest women and men?

Something has to change, or we are toast.

Can the public stomach the awful truth? Or, will we go down in a sea of denial and business-as-usual?

It's almost to the point, where the danger to the world as we know it, might matter as much as the Toyota recall, or who won the Oscars. I know that's a big claim, but that's the way I see it.

I'm Alex Smith. Thanks for listening.

Climate in the Sixth Extinction

NASA just declared 2009 the second hottest year since modern measurements began in 1880. The warmest year was 2005. And the past decade was the warmest on record. Global climate change is upon us.

In this program, you'll hear two of the world's top authorities explain how this will impact our health, and the survival of the species.

I interview Dr. Jonathan Patz, a physician and lead author for the IPCC, on health and climate change. He is now advising emergency doctors and disaster agencies on what to expect as climate disruption proceeds.

[The Patz interview 19 min 5 MB ]

Sure, we talk about the spread of malaria. But Patz also explains the impacts of climate change are already affecting public health in developed countries, including the United States. Just one example: remember all those extreme rain events in the last year, with flooding and records set? Patz says 700 American towns and cities still have interlocking sewage and storm drains. When they get overloaded disease spreads.

Then Dr. Patz goes into the deaths and disease from simple air pollution - which gets magnified in hotter, wetter times. Climate change can raise the number of smog alerts, not only from chemical reactions, but also because air systems are expected to experience longer periods of stagnation. The patterns of mixing in the atmosphere change as the planet warms.

Then, we'll go straight to Paris, for a speech by Thomas Lovejoy, the inventor of the term "biological diversity." His speech, recorded January 25th, 2010 opened a United Nations conference to celebrate this year of biodiversity. But Lovejoy warns we are entering the sixth great extinction. Don't miss this powerful overview on climate change and the species, in our second half hour.

Wiki on Thomas Lovejoy.

[the Lovejoy speech 35 min 8 MB]

Dr. Patz has been a lead author on IPCC reports. On May 12th 2009, he addressed the 16th World Congress on Disaster and Emergency Medicine in Victoria B.C. Listen to the audio of that address here. (courtesy of Omar Ha-Redeye.) It's well worth a listen, covering many climate-related health issues you and I never consider. It's a good follow-up to our interview.

There are scientists, and there are world-renowned scientists. Dr. Thomas Lovejoy has studied life in Brazil's Amazon since 1965. He's advised the World Bank, the United Nations and more. Lovejoy heads the Heinz Center for Science, Economics and the Environment. He started the term "biodiversity" in science.

You are about to hear his latest speech, a keynote introducing 2010 as the UNESCO Year of Biodiversity. It was recorded in Paris January 25th, by independent environmental journalist Stephen Leahy, and sent that night to Radio Ecoshock.

Listen to Thomas Lovejoy, with a plea for the remains of life, as the climate shifts.

The recording is from Stephen Leahy, one of the few independent environmental journalists left.

Keep Stephen working for the world. Donate to cover his expenses at stephenleahy.net. You've never heard me ask for money, but this is a really worth-while cause. As the old publishing model falls into the rocks of bankruptcy, we need a way to keep our best environmental investigative journalists going. Adopting a journalist may be the new model.

We can expect a lot more international coverage from Stephen.

That's it for Radio Ecoshock this week. Don't give up yet - save that for next week, when we go diving into the bleak, with Tim Garrett and Keith Farnish.

Radio Ecoshock 100129 "Climate in the Sixth Extinction" Hi-Fi 56 MB or Lo-Fi 14 MB

Alex

Atomic Dreams, Climate Nightmares

In this program you'll hear about the new nuclear renaissance. The lobbyists, and the greens, who want you to accept more reactors, to prevent catastrophic climate change.

I'll toss in one slightly tarnished hero, Dr. James Hansen, and a new interview with another combative doctor, Helen Caldicott. And running throughout, a stimulating podcast from Shelly Thomas, urging us to "Drop the Nuke Bias"

And I introduce you to your new nuclear neighbors: the United Arab Emirates. Where torture is legal, debtors are thrown in jail, and most of the population are immigrant workers with few rights. Why did South Korea get the deal to build 4 new nukes in the Gulf? Read on....it's dark and dangerous.

But first, a message for the idiots who made Al Gore snowmen in the Netherlands, to prove there is no global warming. And all the American gumbos who posted snowfall in Texas, and Fox News who announced the end of climate change during a brief interlude of cold weather.

Yes, it's time for the new "Climate Denial Crock of the Week" from Peter Sinclair. Peter explains why it gets cold in the winter time - and has a scientist explain that there will still be a few records for cold even in the year 2100 - while almost all other days set records for heat. Meanwhile, on January 15th, much of the Mid-West was 20 degrees above normal, as a warm snap spread across the U.S. Does that prove global warming? No, it's just weather, like the previous cold. Deniers who try to sell you weather as proof of climate are just dumb.

The temperature in the Netherlands on January 15th? Seven degrees Celsius, or 44 degrees Fahrenheit. Guess what happened to the Al Gore snowman protest? It kind of melted away in the heat, just as most of these amateur denier sites will disappear in a few years.

Let's get back to nuclear as the salvation of the world's climate. Before we hear Dr. Caldicott from Australia, I want to introduce you to climatefilesradio.com. That's a good podcast from Shelly Thomas, who also runs Futurism Now and a blog called "civilianism".

I like Shelley's new climate podcast. You really get your hour's worth of news, followed by useful clips and information. For example, I like Shelley's take on a greener internet. I had no idea our exchange of electrons was so damaging to the climate.

In the same podcast climatefilesradio #55, Shelly makes her case that we need more nuclear power, and especially new atomic tech, to replace American dependence on coal fired power plants. I play a clip, including a jazzy piece she snapped off the net, on Thorium reactors.

Is it as great as it sounds? Why are green busybodies opposing this wonderful invention? Shelly doubts that a pediatrician could know enough about nuclear technology. Yes, a pediatrician with 30 years investigating nuclear affairs, many books, even more honorary degrees. What would she know? Let's talk with her now, Dr. Helen Caldicott on Radio Ecoshock.

[Caldicott interview]

Then I introduce you to your new nuclear neighbors: the United Arab Emirates. Were you wondering why Korea got this sweet deal to build four new nuclear reactors in the troubled Gulf, while France and others lost out? A Pakistani source quotes Korean newspapers saying the South Koreans topped up the project with a deal for arms. And not just any weapons: cruise and ballistic missiles, drone aircraft, and even EMP electrical bombs.

Read More here.

In the past, Earth has almost frozen over. Dr. James Hansen tells us there will never again be another snowball Earth, or even another ice age, as long as humans have technology. In the program, I look into Hansen's very recent conversion to advocating nuclear technology, and who his new friends are. When Hansen wrote an open letter to President Obama, calling for more nuclear funding, he became a lobbyist himself.

His climate science is impeccable. But now he's calling for desperate measures.

Without your action, the climate can go very wrong. No better way to end this show than the song simply called "Earth" by Imogen Heap.

Alex Smith
host
Radio Ecoshock
http://www.ecoshock.org

CONSPIRACY! Turning 911 Truth to Climate Denial

Welcome to Radio Ecoshock. We're going to plunge into the fevered world of dark conspiracy. We'll find the men who hate greens, the fringe media voices who call us to commit suicide. If they are to be believed, we must arrest hundreds of thousands of scientists, for their role in the global warming hoax.

We'll find out who is behind the scheme to turn the 911 Truth Movement almost overnight, into the global warming denial network.

This is a review of a new made-for-cable TV series, and rant radio.

Forget about 911. Now our icon of hatred is global warming, and it's terror face isn't just Al Gore. No, the kingpin, the spider at the center of the web is...

[gunfire] [screaming]

Not so fast. To begin my journey into the bowels of conspiracy, I first had to travel to a dark warehouse, on the wrong side of Okayama, Japan. A 30ish balding James Corbett awaits me. He seems shy, but as you'll find out, with a keyboard and a screen, Corbett is a lion against the climate.

Mysteriously, Corbett hands me a slip of paper. With 3 names printed on it. My arduous journey has begun.

The second part of this week's program makes more sense. It's UK author and journalist Fred Pearce. We'll talk about two of his recent books: "Confessions of an Eco-Sinner" and "Last Generation".

Pearce travelled around the world to find out where all our daily "stuff" comes from. Meeting some of the poorer people who produce it, he develops some doubts about all-out localization of production. But then Fred is willing to work through unpopular ideas.

His previous book goes through some of the unexpressed fears scientists have - that we may experience abrupt climate change, rather than the smooth graphs shown by governments and the IPCC. It has happened in the past, and would be very ugly if we bring it on now.

But much of our interview comes from Fred's newest research, for an upcoming book. He's discovered that overpopulation is not doing the planet in, as much as over-consumption. Again he's taken flack, but Fred has the figures to back up his claims. Don't miss Fred Pearce on Radio Ecoshock.

The rest of this blog entry is all about the 911 Truth Movement, rant radio, and how conspiracy theory is being used to deny global warming science. Read More at your own risk....

The Coming Climate Panic

Should we arrest our best climate scientists? The denier fringe is calling for investigations and criminal charges. On today's Radio Ecoshock Show you'll hear one of the world's top scientists answer those charges. I'll digest the best from a stunning speech by Professor Richard B. Alley, at the American Geophysical Union annual meeting in San Francisco, in December.

Here is the link to a video of that speech.

Scroll down for much more on Richard Alley's speech, including a link to transcripts of the clips from this week's radio show, and notes to help non-scientists grasp the important new science.

But first: Ten years ago, the tipping point was whether we could stop climate change. Now, after years of inaction, the answer is no. The next tipping point is likely in human affairs, namely, will we be able to govern ourselves? Will our civilization survive the coming climate panic?

The coming climate panic. That's title of a work that just ricocheted all over the blogosphere. Let's meet the author, Auden Schendler.

[Auden Schendler interview, radio only]

I appreciate Auden Schendler's bravery putting out an SOS about delaying action on climate change. I disagree that cap and trade will actually save the planet - it's got corruption and cheating built right in, in my opinion, and in the European experience. A carbon tax that flows through to the citizens, as proposed by Dr. James Hansen and others, has a chance of actually working.

And I can't agree that the individual doesn't matter in this fight. Auden still believes governments could solve this problem. Copenhagen, and the simple record of increasing emissions no matter what government is allegedly in charge say otherwise.

Sure we should push governments, but I've consistently said that you and I, the citizens are the front line in the fight against climate change. We can and must:

- lead by example, cutting our own carbon emissions by at least 40% this year, and pointing toward energy self sufficiency. And no cheating with phony carbon off-sets.

- start connecting and organizing locally. Fossil energy supplies are limited, and we can't burn what we have. A local economy is the only way to survive well, or survive at all. Pay special attention to your food supplies.

- prepare yourself for emergencies. There are tough unstable times ahead. Have at least several weeks of food and water on hand. Plus other supplies to keep warm and safe. And prepare to help others in emergencies - the latest flood, storm, fires, heat waves. It's not enough to keep yourself or even your family alive. Get ready to help lots of folks.

- either dedicate hours a day to fight for sustainable energy in your community, or figure out where to move. Pure coal power won't last a decade. Industry won't locate there. Eventually, consumers will demand labeling not just about the contents of products - but the amount of pollution used to produce it. If you buy low-fat soup, you'll but low-energy manufactured products.

- my last point, as an individual, is DO NOT count on big governments for much at all. At every level, governments in North America, England, some European countries, and more, are really bankrupt. The growth economy is sputtering out it's last. Then we have to go for a stable state economy, or massive reductions, until the climate is stable, and until a more just distribution of wealth is achieved.

In his blog this week, the dour James Howard Kunstler writes:

"Our destination is an everyday economy where you rarely travel far from the place you live, where you have to make provision for you own health, your own old age, your own income, your own diet, your own security, and your own education. If you're really fortunate, some or all of these necessities can be obtained in conjunction with your neighbors in the place where you live -- but don't expect an increasingly mythical federal government to supply any of it. Expect a new and different way of organizing households based on extended families and kinship groups. Be prepared for agriculture to return to the foreground of everyday life, where farming is back at the center of the economy. Think about how you will cultivate your best role in a social network so the things you do will be truly valued by the other people who know you."

Find that under "The Futile Economy" January 4th, 2010 at kunstler.com

This is Radio Ecoshock. I'm Alex Smith. Look, it's winter. There is snow. It's cold. I can't believe the number of idiots who cite that as proof of the coming ice age, much less a damnation of climate change science.

Check out Joe Romm's "Experts: Cold Snap Doesn't Disprove Global Warming."

If we are really that stupid, and some of us are! - all future climate conferences should be held in August. I believe the next one comes up in May 2010 in Germany?

Climate is measured over decades at best. Heaven help us if we have two real winters in a row! The masses may give in to the loudmouth deniers, going back to energy gluttony, while supplies last. Then we're doomed.

What the heck, let's get back to skiing. Joe Romm, the climate demi-God blogger at climateprogress.org has a feature on the future of skiing this week. Published on January 6th, 2010, it's titled "Can U.S. skiing be saved?"

In the blog, a guest writes:

"Take Aspen, for instance. The resort is already seeing a gradual increase in frost-free days and warmer nights, according to Mike Kaplan, CEO of Aspen Skiing Company, and aspen trees are dying off in large numbers. A study by the Aspen Global Change Institute forecasts that if global carbon emissions continue to rise, Aspen will warm by 14 degrees by the end of this century—giving it a feel similar to Amarillo, TX."

Ouch.

I started covering this story back in 2006, with a podcast called "Can Winter Sports Be Saved?" That mp3 got thousands of downloads, and still goes out by the hundreds every month. In it, I interviewed a rep from Whistler-Blackcomb, the super Canadian ski resort where the 2010 Olympic downhill events will be held in February. Not much has changed since that time, except emissions are worse, and the climate warmed faster. Let's give it a listen now.

[audio only]

That was an interview from one of my early Radio Ecoshock podcasts in 2006, still chilling today.

Find all our past programs and features, as free mp3 downloads, at our web site, ecoshock.org.


RICHARD B ALLEY - THE CARBON CONTROL KNOB

In the recent attacks on top scientists, let us take the case of Richard B. Alley. He is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences, at Penn State University. Alley is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union, and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. His popular book about ice cores is called "The Two Mile Time Machine."

Alley was expected to give one of the best speeches of the 2009 annual meeting of the AGU - and he did not disappoint. I'm going to give you a short digest of that hour-long Bjerknes Lecture to the AGU in San Francisco in December, with a transcript of the quotes.

Professor Alley begins with the attack:

"I said these were interesting times. This is a copy of an email that was sent to my administration [at Penn State] by an alum [alumni, former grad of Penn State], and said alum copied me on this, so I believe I am fair. The alum asks for certain personnel changes to be made, and I have just put in the ones that relate to me.

So for what it's worth, Dr. Alley's work on CO2 levels and ice cores - now I don't actually do that but I talk about it - OK Dr. Alley's work on CO2 levels and ice cores has confirmed that CO2 lags Earth's temperature. This one scientific fact alone proves that CO2 is not the cause of the recent warming.

I continue to mislead the scientific community. There should be prompt response (getting rid of me), I have "crimes against the scientific community, Penn State, the citizens of this great country and the citizens of the world" that "must be dealt with severely" because of my "shameful" activities."

[laughter from the audience][applause]

"So there'll be a wanted poster which will be up here somewhere, but the thing which is fascinating, and we'll come back to, is that this email has in it a logical fallacy which is evident on casual observation. And I think it's worth our understanding at some level, how polarized the world is, how easy it is for someone to misunderstand our science, if they aren't fully within it, the amount of education, the amount of outreach, the amount of clarification, that we have to make, to get from this to a proper scientific understanding."

In fact, the former Penn State grad calls for "an investigation into...Dr. Alley's activities [that] will... start prior to the end of this year."

Later in this program, we'll follow Professor Alley as he explains the denialist bugaboo of carbon dioxide lagging temperature rise in climate history. In excerpts from this important speech, we'll learn more about the scientific history of our planet, and it's atmosphere.

As we will learn, this was part of a concerted effort against climate scientists at Penn State, including the famous "hockey stick" graph creator, Michael Mann, and others.

The Bjerknes Lecture is one of the keynote speeches to the American Geophysical Union annual meeting each year. Named after a famous Arctic researcher, Professor Bjerknes - Penn State's Professor Richard B. Alley received the award, and gave his speech at the December 2009 meeting in San Francisco, for his work teaching the history of Earth's past climates.

The title of the speech was "The Biggest Control Knob, Carbon Dioxide in Earth's Climate History".

I have made a transcript of the excerpts used in today’s show – likely the only print version from the speech so far.

READ MORE