Bjørn
Lomborg versus Al Gore
|
List of alleged errors in Gore´s book
and film
|
|
Lomborg versus Gore
|
SOURCES OF ALLEGED ERRORS |
£
= Bjørn Lomborg in "Cool it!"
B = Kristen Byrnes: Facts
and fictions of Al Gore´s "An
Inconvenient Truth", here.
C = Carter, Robert M.
Carter,
witness statement to a British high court,
August 2007, here.
E = Bob Edelman, a detailed
comment on An Inconvenient Truth, placed
at this
site.
K = William Kininmonth,
Unmasking An Inconvenient Truth. 58 pp.
Article placed (here)
on the website of CSPP, an
organisation led by C. Monckton.
L = Marlo Lewis:
Congressional working paper: Al Gore´s
Science Fiction. A skeptic´s guide to An Inconvenient Truth.
Competitive Enterprise Institute. 154
pp. To be downloaded from here.
M= Christopher Monckton of
Brenchley, leader of the organisation
CSPP: 35 Inconvenient Truths. The errors in Al Gore´s
movie. IPCC website here.
Read Wikipedia on Monckton here.
The
list contains 130 alleged errors.
For each alleged error, the first letters indicate Al Gore´s film
(F) and/or book (B) with page number. Initials of critics are placed in
brackets.
References to IPCC are given as in this example: 4AR wg2 means fourth
assessment report, working group 2. FAQ means frequently asked question.
F, B (C, L): Criticism: any
reference to
the influence of changed solar radiation is omitted.
Comment: Variations in the sun can explain maximally 30 % of the global
temperature increase since 1970 and most likely much less (link,
link
and IPCC
FAQ 2.1 figure 2). As the sun is a minor factor that we cannot
influence, it is relevant to focus exclusively on the major factor
which we can influence.
F, B (C, E, K, L): Gore
accepts that GCM computer models can provide accurate predictions of
future climate change
Comment: Here, he is in full accordance with the IPCC.
F, B (L): Gore never
acknowledges the environmental, health and economic benefits of
climatic warmth.
Comment: It is true that Al Gore has a very one-sided focus on the
negative sides of the story. However, any change that is very sudden
will cause much trouble, because it is difficult to adapt fast enough.
This partially justifies Gore´s onesidedness. In addition,
negative effects are important because they require political action,
whereas positive effects do not.
F, B p (L, M): Any
reference to the beneficial effects of CO2, e.g. as plant "food", is
omitted.
Comment: The fertilizing effect of more atmospheric CO2 is not large
and of moderate economic importance realtive to other impacts of the
greenhouse effect.
F, B p (£): Gore
doesn´t once mention the cost of seriously addressing global
warming.
Comment: Nobody can give a trustworthy estimate of the costs. Al Gore
does mention that there are economic gains to be obtained by using more
renewable energy sources.
F, B p (£, L): Gore
never addresses the obvious criticism that the Kyoto protocol is all
pain for no gain.
Comment: Se the Lomborg-errors page
on carbon cuts and Kyoto.
F, B p12 (B): Within 18
months of the Earth rise picture the modern environmental movement
began.
Comment: One may think of the Stockholm conference, held 18 months
later,
see for instance this link. In the book,
Gore refers to changes in USA: the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water act,
the Natural Environment Policy Act, and the first Earth Day.
F, B p18 (E): On
continental drift: "The teacher was actually reflecting the conclusion
of the scientific establishment at that time."
Comment: Judging from Al Gore´s age, the school episode should
have happened around 1960. According to the Wikipedia article, the
theory on continental drift was not broadly accepted until the 1960s.
So Al Gore´s story fits well into the chronology.
B p25 (C, L): "Carbon
dioxide - the most important of the so-called greenhouse gases".
Comment: The question is: important for what? If we mean important for
future changes, Al Gore is correct.
B p26 (L): Greenhouse
gases on Venus and Mars explain the different climates there.
Comment: The criticism against Gore on this point seems
unjustified.Greenhouse gases at the other planets are not only CO2, but
also other compounds, e.g. H2SO4 in the
Venus atmosphere.
F, B p27 (K, E):
Wrong/simplified explanation of the greenhouse effect: the longwave
radiation is not "trapped".
Comment: It is not realistic to expect a full and correct explanation
of what actually happens to the radiation balance when the amount of
greenhouse gases changes. For a popular book, and even more for a
film, Al Gore´s popularized explanation is acceptable.
F, B p28 (C): Criticism: Any reference to the contribution of
water vapour to
the greenhouse effect is omitted
Comment: It is not true. Gore refers to water vapour on page 28. And
changes in water vapour result from changes in CO2,
so it is relevant to focus just on CO2.
F, B p30&38 (E):
Criticism: Increased CO2
concentrations were reported 20 years before Revelle.
Comment: Gore is essentially correct. Keeling was the first who
obtained reliable systematic measurements and solved crucial
methodological
problems (link).
F, B p42 (£, E, L, M): The melting ice cap on Mount
Kilimanjaro is presented as evidence of global warming.
Comment: This may or may not be right. See the Al Gore error list and the page on Kilimanjaro.
F, B p46 (B, E, L):
Melting glaciers in the US Glacier National Park presented as evidence
of global warming.
Comment: Any melting here continuing after 1970 can indeed be seen as a
result of global warming.
F, B p48 (L, M): The
Perito Moreno glacier in Argentina is presented as evidence of global
warming.
Comment: This is acknowledged as a flaw; see the Al Gore error list.
F, B p50 (L): Criticism:
Recession
of the Columbia Glacier in Alaska may not be due to global warming.
Comment: this type of glacier is sensitive to climate change in certain
phases (such as the present phase in the Columbia glacier), but not in
others, see the wikipedia article on the
tidewater glacier cycle. Gore is correctly using information from
an article in Science
2002, which shows the phot of the glacier and says that glaciers in
Alaska overall contribute much to overall sea level rise.
F, B p52 (E): Many
glaciers in the Andes are melting.
Comment: This is true, see for instance this link and IPCC,
4AR wg2 box 1.1.
F, B p52 (M):
"This is a glacier in Peru just 28 years ago. This is that same
location as it appears in 2006."
Comment: The glacier shown is the Qori Kalis glacier which is part of
the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru. Critics pose that the melting is
probably not due to man-made global warming. But the Quelccaya ice cap
is
now in a more advanced
stage of melting than at any time during the latest 5,200 years (link).
Thus, the recent recession cannot be due merely to the cessation of the
Little Ice Age.
F, B p52 (£, L):
Criticism: Melting of glaciers may just be indications that we are
leaving the Little Ice Age.
Comment: According to the World Glacier Monitoring
Service, the mass balance of glaciers worldwide is becoming ever
more negative, concurrently with rising temperatures. This acceleration
in glacier recession can only be explained by recent climate change.
F, B p56 (L): "Throughout
the European Alps we are witnessing a similar story" (disappearing
glaciers) - but is that
due to
manmade warming?
Comment: In all probability: yes. Major glaciers in the Alps have
receded faster than ever during the latter half of the 20th century and
are now shorter than before the onset of the Little Ice Age, see this link.
F, B p58 (£, E, L, ML): "The Himalayan glaciers produce
more than half of the drinking water for 40 % of the World´s
population"
Comment: This is acknowledged as a flaw; see the Al Gore error list.
F, B p63&64 (L): The
graph
of past temperatures does not originate from Thompson´s own
studies, but is the same as Mann´s hockey stick.
Comment: This is acknowledged as a flaw; see the Al Gore error list.
F, B p64 (L): ". .
skeptics often say that global warming is really an illusion reflecting
nature´s cyclical fluctuations."
Comment: Gore is right that some skeptics regard man-made global
warming as an illusion; this is for instance the theme in the film "The
Great Global Warming Swindle".
F, B p65 (E, L):
"Skeptics launched a fierce attack against . . the hockey stick. . But
in
fact, scientists have confirmed the same basic conclusions in multiple
ways . . ".
Comment: This is acknowledged as a flaw; see the Al Gore error list.
F, B p66 (C, L):
Gore claims that CO2 is now way above anything measured
in the prior 650,000 years record.
Comment: Gore is correct. When past CO2 levels are
measured directly in ice cores, they never exceed 300 ppm. Critics
refer to indirect information inferred from measuring stomata in fossil
leaves, but these data are dubious; the inference is probably not
justified (link) and the
results disagree with measurements in ice cores (link).
F, B p67 (£, B, C, E, L, M): Gore neglects the delay of the CO2
signal relative to the temperature signal in Antarctic ice cores.
See comments in the Al Gore error
list and the page on the CO2 lag.
F, B p67 (L, M): Gore implies
that a difference of just 100 ppm CO2 causes the difference between a
nice day and having a mile of ice above your head.
Comment: No, Gore does not say that. He says that the jump in temperature in the lower graph
(the grey line, not the blue line) in his chart indicates such a
difference, and that is correct.
F, B p67 (K, L, M): Gore
tacitly assumes that when the CO2 level increases by 300 ppm,
temperatures will rise by three times as much as they rose when CO2
levels increased by 100 ppm, i.e. he assumes linearity.
Comment: No, Gore does not tacitly assume that. He leaves it entirely
to the audience to imagine what the relationship between changed CO2
and temperature would be.
F, B p67 (£, E, L, M): Gore postulates that the
levels of CO2 will rise slightly above 600 ppm by 2050.
Comment: Gore does not exactly postulate that. See comments in the Al Gore error list.
F, B p67 (E, M):
Gore says that the projected rise in atmospheric CO2 is
“not controversial in any way or in dispute by
anybody.”
Comment: Gore does not project that CO2 will rise above
600 ppm by 2050, but that CO2 equivalents
will rise that much. This projection is indeed not controversial.
F, B p72 (L): Gore claims
that "in recent years" the rate of global warming has been
accelerating or intensifying.
Comment: This agrees with the latest IPCC report, see 4AR wg1 FAQ 3.1.
F: The 10 hottest years
measured have all occurred within the last 14
years.
B p72 (C, E): "In fact, if you look at the 21 hottest
years measured, 20 of the 21 have occurred within the last 25 years."
The 10 hottest years measured have all occurred within the last 14
years.
Comment: C implies incorrectly
that such a clustering just reflects natural cyclicity. E states that the warmest year was
actually 1934, with reference to these data
from NASA. However, these are just averages for USA, not for the whole
Earth. Globally, 1934 was a year below average.
F, B p75 (C, K, L): The European heatwave in 2003 was
caused by global warming.
Comment: Gore is right. There is good evidence that the chance for such
a heatwave occuring was much increased by global warming, see here.
F, B p75 (£, M):
The European heatwave in 2003 caused the death of 35,000 people.
Comment: Critics claim that reductions in the occurrence of cold spells
save more lives than are taken by heatwaves. They are probably not
correct. See this page in
Lomborg-errors.
F, B p76 (B, L):
"In 2005, many cities in the American west broke all-time records for
high temperatures."
Comment: Critics point out that Gore neglects the city island effect.
However, if increases in the city island effect alone were responsible
for the record breaking, then records should have been broken again in
2006.
F, B p79 (E, L):
Recent ocean temperatures are way above the range of natural
variability.
Comment: Gore´s presentation agrees with the latest IPCC report.
Gore states explicitly what he understands by "natural variability",
and using his understanding, he is unequivocally right.
F, B p80 (B, C, E, L, M): As the oceans get warmer,
storms get stronger.
Comment: Gore is right; see point 6 in the consensus
statement of the World Meteorological Organisation.
F, B p80 (L):
Was global warming the cause of the four unusually powerful hurricanes
that hit Florida in 2004?
Comment: It is not possible to relate any particular hurricane to
global warming, but when scientific consensus is that hurricanes will
on average become stronger, it is relevant for Gore to mention that
strong hurricanes have actually occurred recently.
B p81&92 (C, E, L,
M): "But there is now a
strong , new emerging consensus that global warming is linked to a
significant
increase in both the duration and intensity of hurricanes."
Comment: Gore is right; see points 6 and 7 in the consensus
statement of the World Meteorological Organisation, which Lomborg
refers to. There has been
criticism of thiw propositon (see section 4 in this link).
A main point is that there was also a strong hurricane activity in the
years around 1950, but as global temperatures were relatively high
then, this does not contradict that with increasing temperatures,
hurricanes get stronger.
F, B p81 (L):
There is brand-new evidence that global warming is linked to an
increase in frequency of hurricanes.
Comment: This point is controversial; there are also statements that
the frequency will be stable or even reduced. Gore does not state what
this brand-new evidence is.
F, B p82 (B, L, M): In 2004, Japan set an all-time
record for typhoons.
Comment: This is true when we speak of typhoons that made landfall on
Japan (link).
Gore does not speak of "the seas around Japan", but of "Japan",
i.e. the land, and is therefore correct.
B p82 (L):
Cyclone Monica that hit Australia in 2006, was the strongest cyclone
ever measured.
Comment: As to windspeed, Monica is the strongest cyclone ever measured
on the Southern Hemisphere. Windspeeds sustained for 1 minute were up
to 290 km/h, but higher windspeeds have been reported for a few North
Atlantic cyclones, e.g. Wilma (295 km/h sustained for 1 minute).
However, according to this wikipedia article,
Monica was arguably the world's strongest cyclone, based on a Dvorak
estimation, which suggested central presure reached a low of 869 hPa,
which is deeper than in Wilma (882 hPa) and Rita (895 hPa).
F, B p84 (B, L, M): Hurricane Catarina, the first
hurricane ever in the south Atlantic, was another sign of global
warming.
See comments in the Al Gore error
list.
F, B p86 (£, B, L, M): In 2004 the all-time record for
tornadoes in USA was broken.
Comment: This is acknowledged as a flaw; see the Al Gore error list.
B p89 (L):
"The emerging consensus linking global warming to the increasingly
destructive power of hurricanes has been based in part on research
showing a significant increase in the number of category 4 and 5
hurricanes."
Comment: Gore probably refers to an article by Webster et al. in
Science 2005, which showed that since 1970 the total number of
hurricanes has not increased gloibally, but the proportion of very
strong hurricanes (category 4 and 5) had doubled. Thisi result was
obtained by analysing trends on a nearly global scale, in order to have
a statistically valid material. This article has been heavily
criticized by global-warming skeptics, but the criticism has been
rejected in a thorough rebuttal
by Webster et al. It seems that Gore is completely right concerning the
relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity.
F, B p94 (C, K, L, M): Hurricane Katrina is presented as
a cause of global warming.
See comments in the Al Gore error
list.
F, B p102 (£, B, C,
L, M): Big storm
insurance losses are increasing.
Comment: This is acknowledged as a flaw; see the Al Gore error list.
B p103 (L):
In 2005, for the first time in history, the latin letters were not
enough to name all hurricanes.
Comment: According to L, the
practice of naming storms only goes back to 1953. Before that, the
capability to detect hurricanes was not as good, and there could
conceivably have been other years with as many hurricanes as in 2005.
This may be true, but it does not conflict with Gore´s statement.
B p106 (L):
More downpour falls in the form of big, one-time rainfalls.
Comment: L doubts if a trend
for that will be caused by global warming. However, it is in accordance
with IPCC, 4AR wg1 FAQ 3.2, where it is stated that "Widespread
increases in heavy precipitation events have been observed, even in
places where total amounts have decreased. These cahnges are associated
with increased water vapour in the atmosphere arising from the warming
of the world´s oceans."
B p106 (L):
The number of major flood events has increased decade by decade.
Comment: This is acknowledged as a flaw; see the Al Gore error list.
B p106 (L):
Global warming increases the percentage of precipitation that falls as
rain instead of snow, which leads to more flooding.
Comment: According to IPCC (4AR wg1, chapter 3) it is correct that a
higher percentage falls as rain instead of snow (but there is no reason
why
this should lead to more flooding).
F, B p110 (L, M):
In July 2005, Mumbai received the largest downpour any Indian city has
received in one day.
Comment: The critics present a graph that the monthly precipitation for
July in Mumbai shows no long-term trend. However, Al Gore speaks of
what falls in 24 h, not what falls in a month, and he is apparently
right.
F, B p112 (L):
There have also been recent record floodings in China.
Comment: This is true, but the critic rightly points out that this is
no different from what has happened from time to time during a long
history.
F, B p112 (L):
Criticism that Gore only mentions places where the weather is becoming
more extreme, like wet places getting floods and dry places getting
droughts.
Comment: Gore is grossly right here according to IPCC, as the general
trend is for weather events to become more extreme.
F, B p117 (B, C, E, L, M): Gore blames global warming for
the disappearance of Lake Chad.
See comments in the Al Gore error
list.
F, B p117 (£, M): Gore says terrible tragedies are
occurring in the southern Sahara
because of drought which he blames on global warming.
Comment: Gore is more or less right. There has been increasing drought
there, especially around 1980, according to IPCC, 4AR wg1 section
3.3.2.2. Since 1980, precipitation has increased again, but drying in
this region can be simulated by computer models
that incorporate an increasing greenhouse effect, see here, so it is quite
possible that it is related to the greenhouse effect.
B p119 (K, L):
Desertification has been increasing in the world decade by decade due
to global warming.
Comment: It seems that Gore is right. According to IPCC, 4AR, wg2,
section 1.3.2.2 "very dry areas . . have more than doubled since the
1970s due to a combination of ENSO events and surface warming."
F, B p121 (L): There will be a loss in soil
moisture of up to 35 % in vast growing areas of USA.
Comment: Gore seems to be right. According to IPCC, there has been a
long time increase in southwest USA in the Palmer Drought Severity
Index (4AR wg1 section 3.3.4) and there have recently been dry and
unusually warm summers in western USA (4AR wg2 table 1.3).
F, B p126 (L, M):
In the Arctic, temperatures are shooting upward faster than anywhere
else on the
planet.
Comment: This is approximately correct, as seen in figures 3.9 and 3.10
in the IPCC 4AR wg1 report.
F, B p128 (E, L):
The cracking of the Ward Hunt shelf in Arctic Canada is unprecedented.
Comment: Gore is right. There is evidence
that this ice shelf was 3,000 years old, so the split up was something
new and unexpected.
F, B p130 (B, L):
Gore indicates that the melting of permafrost as evidenced by "drunken"
trees in Alaska is due to global warming.
Comment: Critics say that all of Alaska warmed suddenly in 1976,
whereas temperatures have changed little before and after this. So they
ascribe the warming to a phase change in a climate oscillation rather
than to global warming. However, according to IPCC, 4AR wg1
chapter 3, Alaska has warmed considerably after 1979, so the
critics are not right.
B p133 (L):
The release of stored carbon when the permafrost in Siberia melts will
cause positive feedback.
Comment: L poses that the
release of carbon may be compensated by increased growth of forest in
Siberia. But, according to IPCC, 4AR wg2 section 4.4, such an effect
will only last until the latter half of the 21st century, after which
the net effect will be a release of CO2 to the
atmosphere. Part of the explanation for this is that the vegetation
will have become CO2-saturated by then. Altogether, the
objection to Gore´s statement is not pertinent.
F, B p135 (L):
A graph shows the decrease in winter travel days in Alaska.
Comment: Same comments as to p 130.
F, B p137 (L):
"A Canadian company has figured out how to make a new kind of ethanol
from plant fiber - meaning that it is cheaper and cleaner than regular
ethanol."
Comment: What Gore means by `regular ethanol´ is not clear. L claims that unsubsidized
bioethanol will never be competitive relative to fossil fuels, but he
is probably wrong. The supply costs of fossil fuels were in 2004
somewhat smaller than production costs of bioethanol (link), but
with the large increase since then in the price of fossil fuels,
unsubsidized bioethanol may soon become competitive.
F, B p139 (B, E): "Yet another
surprise for me was when scientists showed me that
near the South Pole, the presence of air pollution in the ice cores
visibly declined not long after passage of the US Clean Air Act in 1990
. . you can actually see the before and after with your own eyes."
Comment: This is acknowledged as a flaw; see the Al Gore error list.
B p141 (L):
Was the severe drought in 2005 in the Amazon is related to global
warming?
Comment: L refers to a realclimate web page,
according to which a relationship of this particular event to global
warming cannot be clearly demonstrated. However, this is not a singular
event. There has been a general trend towards more drought in parts of
Brazil (link),
which may possibly be seen as part of a pattern created by global
warming.
F, B p143 (L):
The Arctic ice cap plays a crucial role in cooling the Earth.
Comment: What Gore means is that less ice means a smaller albedo and
hence more absorption of sun energy, which will create a positive
feedback. This is correct.
F, B p144 (M):
Gore says that ice-melt allows the Sun to heat the Arctic Ocean
Comment: In spite of the criticism raised by M, Al Gore´s explanation is
practically correct.
F, B p146 (£, L): Crticism: Gore claims that global
warming
endangers polar bears even though polar bear populations are
increasing.
Comment: See the Lomborg-errors page on
polar bears.
(F), B p146 (£, B, C, E, L, M): "Polar bears have been drowning
in significant numbers."
Comment: The term `significant numbers´ is acknowledged as
a flaw; see the Al Gore error list.
B p149 (L):
Gore claims that an increase of 5°F globally will mean an increase
of more than 12°F at the North Pole.
Comment: According to IPCC (4AR wg1 figure 11.18) the projected
temperature rise in the Arctic by 2100 will be 2 to 11° C,
with a central estimate of 6° C (11° F). So
Gore is correct. The projected rise in the Antarctic will
be much less (a central estimate of 3° C).
F, B p149 (L): Gore conflates the oceanic
thermohaline circulation, driven by salinity and sea temperatures, with
the Gulf Stream, driven by wind.
See comments in the Al Gore error
list.
F, B p150 (£, B, C,
E, L, M): About
disruption of the Gulf Stream: "Some scientists are now seriously
worried about the possibility of this phenomenon recurring."
See comments in the Al Gore error
list.
B p 150: "Dr. Ruth Curry is especially concerned about the rapid
melting of ice
in Greenland . . Recently, she observed: `The possibility of such
extreme events precludes ruling out that disruption of the North
Atlantic conveyor in the 21st century could occur as a result of
greenhouse warming.´"
See comments in the Al Gore error
list.
F, B p153 (B, L, M): Studies in the Netherlands
demonstrate the increasing mismatch between the timing of caterpillar
abundance and the timing of hatching of migratory bird chicks.
Comment: Gore´s presentation is correct. There is also evidence
that pied flycatcher populations have declined considerably in those
regions that have the greatest mismatch with their food source.
Sources: here
and here.
B p153 (M):
Criticism: The figure shows a black tern feeding young, and thus is a
bogus
picture unrelated to the story on flycatchers.
Comment: The legend clearly indicates that the shown species is a black
tern. This is also a Dutch migratory bird with population declines in
many areas, and it feeds to a great extent on (aquatic) insects - the
food item in the bill may also be an insect. The
picture is not irrelevant.
B p154 (L):
The decline in frost days in Switzerland coincides with the spreading
of invasive alien species there.
Comment: Gore´s presentation is correct.
F, B p156 (E, L):
Rising temperatures in the American west coincides with the spread
(epizootics) of pine beetles.
Comment: This is true. Pine beetle outbreaks are influenced by summer
temperatures as well as winter temperatures (link).
It is possible that an insect can have devastating outbreaks at certain
temperatures, and no outbreaks at slightly different temperatures. A
European example is described by Baltensweiler pp. 208-209 in P. J. den
Boer & G. R. Gradwell (eds.)(1971): Dynamics of populations.
F, B p163 (L):
The rate of extinction is now 1,000 times higher than the natural
background rate.
Comment: See the page on Lomborg´s
biodiversity chapter, entry to p. 255 right.
F, B p164 (B, C, K, L, M): "Ocean reefs . . are being killed
in large numbers by global warming."
See comments in the Al Gore error
list for p. 166.
B p164 (L):
In 2005 there was a massive loss of coral reefs.
Comment: There was a massive bleaching event in the Caribbean, but
according to this Reef Check report,
losses were moderate. However, the IPCC 4AR report, wg2, box 6.1, says
that in 2005 "on many Caribbean reefs, bleaching exceeded that of 1998
in both extent and mortality". Wilkinson (2004): "Status of coral reefs
of the world" (link)
shows a chart that the coverage of coral reefs in the Caribbean
declined from 54 % cover in 1976 to 9 % cover in 2001. Thus on a longer
time scale, there is a very severe decline. In the light of this, Al
Gore has not exaggerated the severity of the situation.
B p164 (L):
In 1998 the world lost an estimated 16 % of all its coral reefs.
Comment: The worldwide bleaching event in 1998 is described in detail here.
The estimated proportion of live coral cover lost is 10 %, according to
a report from 2002 (link). The
IPCC 4AR report section 1.3.4 cites a loss of 16 %. This is taken from
Wilkinson (2004): Status of coral reefs of the world (link),
where it is said that 16 % of the world´s reefs were seriously
damaged in 1998, but that 6,4 % are recovering, leaving 10 %
permanently dead.
B p166 (L):
"The link between global warming and the large-scale bleaching of
corals . . is now universally accepted."
See comments in the Al Gore error
list.
B p168-169 (L, M):
Rising CO2 levels will make sea water more acidic to the
detriment of reef-building corals.
Comment: This agrees with IPCC (4AR wg2, paragraph 4.4.9).
F, B p172 (L): "Algae is just one of the disease
vectors that have been increasing because of global warming."
Comment: This is true. Algae are vectors for cholera and other
bacterial diseases, and are sensitive to global warming (link).
F, B p172 (C, E, K, L, M): "And when these vectors - whether
algae, mosquitoes, ticks, or other germ-carrying life forms start to
show up in new areas and cover a wider range, they are more likely to
interact with people, and the diseases they carry become more serious
threats."
Comment: This is a very general statement, which in this formulation is
hardly false. As a concrete example, critics have raised dobut that global warming is causing more
tick-borne disease. But maybe it is. According to IPCC, 4AR, paragraph
1.3.7.1,
ticks that carry lyme disease (borreliosis) have expanded their
northern limit of
distribution in Sweden.
F, B p173 (£, K, L, M): "Now the mosquitoes with
warming are climbing to higher altitudes."
Comment: This is acknowledged as a flaw; see the Al Gore error list and the page on malaria.
F, B p174 (B, L):
"Some 30 so-called new diseases have emerged over the last 30 years.
And some old diseases that had been under control are now surging
again."
See comments on the Al Gore error list.
F, B p174 (£, B, M): Gore says that, as well as
malaria, “global warming” is spreading
Dengue fever, Lyme disease, West Nile virus, arenavirus, Machupo virus,
avian flu,
Ebola virus, Marburg hermorrhagic fever, E. Coli 0157:H7, Hantavirus,
Legionella, Leptospirosis,
multi-drug-resistant TB, Nipah virus, SARS and Vibrio Cholerae 0139.
Comment: This is acknowledged as an error; see the Al Gore error list.
F, B p175 (£, L, M):
One example is the West Nile Virus, which entered the
United States . . .These are very troubling times."
Comment: This is acknowledged as a flaw; see the Al Gore error list.
B p178 (£, K, L): "Scientists studying emperor
penguins at the colony featured in
the film found that their numbers have dropped by 70% since the 1960s.
The likely culprit: global climate change."
See comments on the Al Gore error list.
F, B p181 (L, M):
"Each orange splotch represents an ice shelf the size of Rhode
Island or
larger that has broken up . . "
Comment: Gore´s critics pose that the comparison with Rhode
Island is misleading, because this is a very small state. This
criticism cannot be taken seriously. Furthermore, they claim the the
disappearance of ice is not due to man-made global warming, because
these ice shelves have disappeared before, some thousand years ago. The
reply to this is given under the next point.
F, B p183 (£, L, M): Scientists thought that the
Larsen-B ice shelf would be stable for another century - even with
global warming.
See comments on the Al Gore error list.
F, B p184 (L):
The break-off of floating ice shelves accelerates the flow of
land-based ice behind them.
Comment: L raises the
criticism that this acceleration lasts only for short. This, however,
does not contradict that Gore is correct.
F, B p186 (C, E, L, M): "Many
residents of low-lying Pacific nations have already had to evacuate
their homes because of rising seas."
Comment: This is acknowledged as an error; see the Al Gore error list.
B p189 (L, M): Gore presents a graph showing
that annual closures of the Thames barriers increased in recent years.
See comments on the Al Gore error list.
B p190 (L, M):
" . . two new studies in 2006 showed first that the overall volumes of
ice in
East Antarctica now appear to be declining, and that 85 % of the
glaciers there appear to be declining."
Comment: Although various estimates of overall ice mass
balance of the Antarctic ice sheet differ, there is consensus that a
relatively small mass gain on East
Antarctica is more than compensated by the mass loss on West
Antarctica, even when the situation on the Antarctic Peninsula is left
out of consideration. See the IPCC 4AR wg1
report, paragraph 4.6.2.2.2. Gore alludes to at study saying that there
may be a negative mass balance even on East Antarctica; it has not been
possible to identify the source. There is one study from 2006 (link)
implying that the mass loss on East Antarctica is nil. A brand new
study, published in January 2008 (link),
reaches the conclusion that the net balance in East Antarctica is near
zero, but slightly negative. This article also has the figure 85 % of
the ice along the coastline - so this is probably the study that Gore
refers to. He must then have seen it two years in advance of its
publication.
B p190 (L):
" . . air temperatures high above the ice have warmed more rapidly than
air temperatures anywhere else in the world"
Comment: Gore correctly cites a study by Turner
(2006). The critics stress some uncertainties, e.g. that some model
runs do not replicate the observed tropospheric warming over
Antarctica, but it should be remembered that there are other model runs
that do replicate observations. In any case, actual observations are
more important than model projections. It is also worth remembering
that critics over and over again claim that whereas models predict more
warming in the troposphere than at the surface, such warming has not
been observed. Now, here is a case where we do have (much) more warming
in the troposphere than at the surface, and what do the critics say?
The say that this isn´t warming at the surface, so it
doesn´t count! In any case, melting of all that ice on Antarctica
takes heat out of the air, so maybe it is no wonder that air
temperatures
there rise very little.
F, B p190 (L,
M): " . . scientists have documented significant and alarming
structural changes on the underside of the ice shelf."
Comment: Gore seems to be right. IPCC 4AR wg1 refers to this subject in
paragraph 4.6.3.4. The report says that both the west side of the
Antarctic Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea coast are exposed to warm
circumpolar deep water, capable of causing rapid ice shelf basal
melting, and the recent warming of ocean water seaward of the ice has
been observed.
F (M):
Gore says “global warming” is making the Greenland ice sheet unstable.
Comment: M is wrong and cites
Gore incorrectly. What Gore actually says in the film is that the ice
sheet on
Greenland is more unstable than that on Antarctica, and that is
correct.
F,
B p192 (L): Gore refers to `moulins´
that lead melt water to the bottom of the glaciers where it lubricates
the glacier bed and accelerates glacier flow.
Comment: Gore is correct.
F, B p196 (£, C, E, L, M): "IF Greenland broke up and
melted, or if half of Greenland and half of
West Antarctica broke up and melted, . . .sea levels worldwide
would increase by between 18 and
20 feet."
See comments in the Al Gore error
list.
F, B p214 (L):
"We are witnessing an unprecedented and massive collision between our
civilization and the Earth."
Comment: This statement is correct and should therefore not be
criticised.
F, B p216 (L):
" . . the momentum in world population has built up so powerfully that
the `explosion´ is still taking place . . "
Comment: Gore is completely right. L
cites environmental journalist Gregg Easterbrook, who says: "Population
growth is a fantastic achievement - though one that engenders problems
we must fix . . ". The critics fail to realize that population growth
in itself is the major
problem, causing a lot of other problems which cannot be fixed.
F, B p222 (L):
"The way we treat forests is a political issue". A photograph shows a
barren treeless landscape on the Haitian side of
the border and lush green forest cover on the Dominican side.
Comment: L raises the
criticism that the difference between the two countries would rather be
due to differences in income per capita (more than 4 times higher in
the Dominican Republic than in Haiti). You could also have pointed at
differences in population density (67 % higher in Haiti). None of these
parameters contradict that forest policy could be important. In
principle, you can have a good forest policy even in a poor country -
this may benefit economic growth, rather than the other way around.
F, B p227 (L):
"Almost 30 % of the CO2 released into the atmosphere
each year is
a result of the
burning of brushland . . "
Comment: L points out that if
poor people had better access to fossil energy, they would not burn so
much brushland. Maybe, but given recent increases in oil prices, this
is more
or less a theoretical possibility. Furthermore, if it were
to happen, it would increase rather than reduce atmospheric CO2
pollution.
B p229 (L):
There has been an increase in major wildfires in north and south
America.
See comments in the Al Gore error
list.
F, B p250 (C, K, M): Gore describes carbon dioxide as
“greenhouse gas pollution.” In the start of the film, he uses the term
"global warming pollution."
Comment: He is right. Under the term "pollution" is included situations
where a natural substance occurs in unnatural amounts, such as lead
pollution, or pollution of water bodies with nitrate and phosphate.
F, B p250 (E, L): "The United States is responsible
for more greenhouse gas pollution than South America, Africa, the
Middle East, Australia, Japan and Asia - all put together."
Comment: The critics state that no American should feel guilty about
this, because USA has been the world´s economic engine, creating
prosperity. A reply to this is given in the next point.
F, B p252 (L):
Per capita carbon emissions in USA is way above emissions everywhere
else.
Comment: The critics state that no American should feel guilty about
this; when USA emits more CO2 than others, this is
because they produce more goods and more value than others; the carbon
intensity (tons CO2 emitted per $1000 economic value
produced) is not higher in USA than in many other countries. A reply to
this is that CO2 emission is here justified as long as
it is correlated with economic growth. This leads to the absurd
proposition that if we continue this process until we approach a point
where the whole
biosphere is destroyed and man cannot live on Earth anymore, then this
would be justified by the economic values produced during the process.
Nobody could expect Al Gore to adhere to such an ideology.
B p252 (L):
"The European Union has adopted this US
innovation and is making it work effectively."
Comment: This is acknowledged as a flaw; see the Al Gore error list.
F, B p262 (C, E, L): "Naomi Oreskes . . . She and her
team selected a large random
sample of 928 articles representing almost 10 % of the total . . "
See comments in the Al Gore error
list.
F, B p264 (L):
"The misperception that there is serious disagreement among scientists
about global warming is actually an illusion that has been deliberately
fostered by . . . Exxon Mobil . . . and a few other companies."
Comment: L turns the
argumentation about and formulates the sentence that "the misperception
that science justifies alarm and the adoption of growth-chilling energy
rationing schemes is an illusion deliberately fostered by a large cadre
of well-funded special interests." I cannot see that L is right here. I cannot see that
there are any well-funded special interests here, and I do not accept
the conception that more wise energy use would be growth-chilling. The
proposition that scientists raise the alarm simply in order to get more
funding, is malicious and unwarranted. If scientists were simply
motivated to get more funding, they could obtain this in better ways.
F, B p263 (E, L):
Gore refers to a disinformation campaign designed to "reposition global
warming as theory, rather than fact."
Comment: Gore refers to the 1997 book "The heat is on" by journalist
Ross Gelbspan. Here, Gelbspan exposed a campaign led by the Global
Climate Coalition and quoted a 1991 strategy memo: the goal was to
"reposition global
warming as theory, rather than fact." There exists also newer
documentation for such disinformation
campaigns. See this
link (memo from API).
B
p264 (L):
"At the beginning of 2001, president Bush hired a
lawyer/lobbyist named Phillip Cooney to be in charge of environmental
policy in The White House." F:
"He worked for the American Petroleum Institute and in January of 2001
he was put by the president in charge of environmental policy."
Comment: The criticism is that he was not "in charge", but "only" chief
of staff. However, the term `in charge´ is often used in a rather
wide sense. My dictionary has the example: "a nurse in charge of
children". It is clear from Gore´s text - if you consult also the
following sentence - that he uses the term in the wide sense. In
addition, he does state on page 265 that Cooney was hired as chief of
staff. Altogether, the text is OK.
F, B p264 (L):
"Cooney . . was empowered by the president to edit and censor the
official assessments of global warming from the EPA. . . "
Comment: Gore is right.
F, B p264 (B, E, L): "Cooney had diligently edited out
any mention of the dangers global warming poses to the American people."
Comment: Gore is right.
F, B p266 (L):
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary
depends on his not understanding it."
Comment: L replies to this
that it refers also to the greenhouse alarmists. He is not right. A
large part of the "alarmists" do not obtain any salary from
what they are doing.
B p269 (L):
"48 Nobel Prize-winning scientists accused President Bush . . of
distorting science . . ignoring scientific consensus on critical issues
such as global climate change."
See comments in the Al Gore error
list.
F, B p271 (L): ". . if we do the right thing,
then we´re going to create a lot of wealth, jobs and opportunity."
Comment: According to L, it is
"silly" to believe that investing in alternative energy sources will
create wealth, jobs and opportunity. I live in a country - Denmark -
where such investments have been made, and indeed, that has created
wealth, jobs and opportunity.
F, B p272 (L):
USA is dead last concerning mileage standards for cars.
Comment: In the opinion of L,
it is rather so that USA is first in consumer choice. Really? Do
consumers prefer cars that consume more of the expensive fuel?
F, B p272 (L):
" . . we cannot sell cars made in America to China because we
don´t meet their environmental standards."
Comment: L points out that
U.S. fuel economy standards specify a fleet average mileage per gallon, and
many U.S. produced cars exceed the average. U.S. companies could easily
produce and sell above-average cars for the Chinese market.
A reply to this is: yes, probably, but they do not. See the next point
about this.
F, B p273 (L):
" . . the autocompanies are suing California to prevent this state law
from taking effect."
Comment: If fuel economy standards were set higher in California than
in the rest of USA, this would mean fragmenting of the American auto
market, and, according to L,
it is sensible that the autocompanies want to avoid this. But thereby L proves that these companies are
not willing to produce two types of cars, like if they produce one type
for China and/or California and another type for regions with lower
standards. He thereby contradicts himself.
F, B p273 (L):
" . . it´s the companies that are building more efficient cars
that are doing well."
Comment: Gore understands efficiency as a question of fuel economy,
whereas his critic says that most of the efficiency gains in American
cars have been used to increase vehicle acceleration, towing capacity,
size and weight. If so, it is understandable that companies that focus
on acceleration, towing capacity, size and weight are not doing well:
most consumers do not need that - they need better fuel economy.
B p273 (L):
"And they´re still redoubling their efforts to sell large,
inefficient gas-guzzlers even though the marketplace is sending them
the same message that the environment is sending them."
Comment: L protests by saying
that some of the SUVs advertised for are not very large - thereby
demonstrating that he, too, does not listen to message.
F, B p273 (L):
A chart shows that, during Feb.-Nov. 2005, market capitalization
increased at Toyota and Honda and fell dramatically at Ford and GM.
Comment: the criticism goes that the recent change in consumer
preference could not have been predicted. Well - it could not have been
predicted by those who stubbornly denied that there could come any
shortage of cheap petrol.
F, B p276 (L):
A chart shows how U.S. renewable energy production could increase from
about 7 quadrillion British thermal units in 1990 to 22 quad.s in 2030.
Comment: Gore is criticised for not giving any source for his
postulates. Critics may be right that just relying on the free market
forces, with no extra will to enforce more sensible energy use, will
not bring about the changes sketched by Gore. But it seems likely that
if there is a will to obtain the set goal, then this is possible.
F, B p279 (L): Criticism: Gore does not address
any of the
`well-known´ drawbacks of windpower.
Comment: The criticisms vastly inflates the drawbacks of windpower. As
a citizen of Denmark, where we have windmills everywhere, I do not see
these drawbacks.
F, B p281 (L):
Policies recommended by the economists Socolow and Pacala, all of
which are based on already-existing, affordable
technologies, can bring emissions down to a point below
1970s levels.
Comment: The criticism is that the technologies are not affordable and
that introduction of the technologies is politically difficult.
However, what is affordable depends on what political choices are made.
If a specific policy invites the more widespread use of a new
technology, then there will be an economic stimulus to make that
technology more efficient and hence more competitive.
F, B p298 (L):
"This isn´t an ideological debate with two sides, pro and con. .
. I believe it is a moral issue."
Comment: The criticism is that anyone who claims that morality is on
his side, implicitly states that it is acceptable to overrule the other
side who is immoral, and that means replacing democracy with some sort
of dictatorship. This objection may or may not be right. In general, if
there is a severe threat involved, then it is right to speak of a moral
issue. For example, if a person with alcohol in his blood intends to
drive a car, or if a person
infected with HIV intends to make love to another person who is not yet
infected,
then these acts are immoral, because there is a severe threat of
causing harm. However, if a sober person intends to drive a car, this
is not immoral, and if a healthy person intends to make love, this is
most often not immoral, so if the threats do not exist, then there is
no basis for an overruling based on arguments dealing with moral. So
the crucial question is if the threat is
real - if it is, then we have a moral issue.